Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL) hold nearly identical market odds for second place in Pernambuco’s two-seat Senate contest because recent polls show them locked in a technical tie behind leader Marília Arraes (PDT). The latest Quaest survey, conducted September 4–7, placed Arraes at 17 percent, Costa at 14 percent, and Mendonça at 11 percent when combining first and second preferences, all within the three-point margin of error. Earlier August and early-September readings recorded similar narrow gaps, with Mendonça registering modest gains while Costa remained stable. High undecided (27 percent) and blank/null (18 percent) shares, combined with polarized voter blocs tied to the concurrent gubernatorial race, keep the second-seat outcome fluid. Intensified campaigning on security and economic issues through early October could still shift preferences before ballots close.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHumberto Costa 43%
Mendonça Filho 42%
Marília Arraes 13.3%
Túlio Gadêlha 2.9%
$31,094 Vol.
$31,094 Vol.
4 out 2026
Humberto Costa
43%
Mendonça Filho
42%
Marília Arraes
13%
Túlio Gadêlha
3%
Eduardo da Fonte
2%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
Humberto Costa 43%
Mendonça Filho 42%
Marília Arraes 13.3%
Túlio Gadêlha 2.9%
$31,094 Vol.
$31,094 Vol.
4 out 2026
Humberto Costa
$10,112 Vol.
43%
Mendonça Filho
$8,246 Vol.
42%
Marília Arraes
$5,337 Vol.
13%
Túlio Gadêlha
$1,430 Vol.
3%
Eduardo da Fonte
$1,511 Vol.
2%
Samuel Timoteo
$834 Vol.
<1%
Mariano Macedo
$806 Vol.
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$773 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$494 Vol.
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$490 Vol.
<1%
Gorett Bitu
$629 Vol.
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$433 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL) hold nearly identical market odds for second place in Pernambuco’s two-seat Senate contest because recent polls show them locked in a technical tie behind leader Marília Arraes (PDT). The latest Quaest survey, conducted September 4–7, placed Arraes at 17 percent, Costa at 14 percent, and Mendonça at 11 percent when combining first and second preferences, all within the three-point margin of error. Earlier August and early-September readings recorded similar narrow gaps, with Mendonça registering modest gains while Costa remained stable. High undecided (27 percent) and blank/null (18 percent) shares, combined with polarized voter blocs tied to the concurrent gubernatorial race, keep the second-seat outcome fluid. Intensified campaigning on security and economic issues through early October could still shift preferences before ballots close.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Volume
$31,094Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL) hold nearly identical market odds for second place in Pernambuco’s two-seat Senate contest because recent polls show them locked in a technical tie behind leader Marília Arraes (PDT). The latest Quaest survey, conducted September 4–7, placed Arraes at 17 percent, Costa at 14 percent, and Mendonça at 11 percent when combining first and second preferences, all within the three-point margin of error. Earlier August and early-September readings recorded similar narrow gaps, with Mendonça registering modest gains while Costa remained stable. High undecided (27 percent) and blank/null (18 percent) shares, combined with polarized voter blocs tied to the concurrent gubernatorial race, keep the second-seat outcome fluid. Intensified campaigning on security and economic issues through early October could still shift preferences before ballots close.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$31,094Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL) hold nearly identical market odds for second place in Pernambuco’s two-seat Senate contest because recent polls show them locked in a technical tie behind leader Marília Arraes (PDT). The latest Quaest survey, conducted September 4–7, placed Arraes at 17 percent, Costa at 14 percent, and Mendonça at 11 percent when combining first and second preferences, all within the three-point margin of error. Earlier August and early-September readings recorded similar narrow gaps, with Mendonça registering modest gains while Costa remained stable. High undecided (27 percent) and blank/null (18 percent) shares, combined with polarized voter blocs tied to the concurrent gubernatorial race, keep the second-seat outcome fluid. Intensified campaigning on security and economic issues through early October could still shift preferences before ballots close.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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