Renan Santos, the Mission Party candidate in Brazil’s 2026 presidential race, has already joined the first televised debate in late August and secured a court reversal of temporary restrictions on debate access and campaign financing. These developments, combined with multiple additional debates scheduled before the October 4 first round and Santos’s consistent public emphasis on using such events for visibility, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 96.5% implied probability for “Yes.” Remaining uncertainty stems mainly from potential further electoral court rulings, last-minute scheduling shifts, or unforeseen campaign strategy changes, though none currently appear likely to block participation.