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icon for Eleição para o Senado Federal de São Paulo: 2º Lugar
Política·Brasil

Eleição para o Senado Federal de São Paulo: 2º Lugar

icon for Eleição para o Senado Federal de São Paulo: 2º Lugar
Política·Brasil

Eleição para o Senado Federal de São Paulo: 2º Lugar

André do Prado 39.3%

Marina Silva 25%

Simone Tebet 15%

Guilherme Derrite 14%

Polymarket

$45,387 Vol.

André do Prado 39.3%

Marina Silva 25%

Simone Tebet 15%

Guilherme Derrite 14%

Polymarket

$45,387 Vol.

icon for André do Prado

André do Prado

$6,252 Vol.

44%

icon for Marina Silva

Marina Silva

$10,867 Vol.

25%

icon for Simone Tebet

Simone Tebet

$10,543 Vol.

15%

icon for Guilherme Derrite

Guilherme Derrite

$7,259 Vol.

14%

icon for Salles

Salles

$5,220 Vol.

2%

icon for Marcio Alves

Marcio Alves

$411 Vol.

1%

icon for Ednelson Cesaretti

Ednelson Cesaretti

$580 Vol.

<1%

icon for Geraldo Rufino

Geraldo Rufino

$528 Vol.

<1%

icon for Petter Maahs

Petter Maahs

$757 Vol.

<1%

icon for Weller Gonçalves

Weller Gonçalves

$813 Vol.

<1%

icon for William Teixeira

William Teixeira

$686 Vol.

<1%

icon for Dra. Eliana Ferreira

Dra. Eliana Ferreira

$457 Vol.

<1%

icon for Maíra de Souza

Maíra de Souza

$406 Vol.

<1%

icon for Soninha Francine

Soninha Francine

$608 Vol.

<1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent Quaest polling from early September shows a technical tie among Guilherme Derrite (PP), Marina Silva (Rede), and Simone Tebet (PSB) near the top for São Paulo’s two Senate seats, with André do Prado (PL) trailing but still competitive and Ricardo Salles (Novo) further back. High undecided voters and blank/null responses, combined with the dual-vote system and ongoing free electoral airtime since late August, sustain broad uncertainty over final ordering. A September 9 debate highlighted contrasting alliances—Tarcísio-backed right-wing names versus the Haddad-aligned center-left ticket—while procedural timelines to the October 4 election leave room for late shifts in turnout or preference consolidation that could clarify second-place positioning.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$45,387
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent Quaest polling from early September shows a technical tie among Guilherme Derrite (PP), Marina Silva (Rede), and Simone Tebet (PSB) near the top for São Paulo’s two Senate seats, with André do Prado (PL) trailing but still competitive and Ricardo Salles (Novo) further back. High undecided voters and blank/null responses, combined with the dual-vote system and ongoing free electoral airtime since late August, sustain broad uncertainty over final ordering. A September 9 debate highlighted contrasting alliances—Tarcísio-backed right-wing names versus the Haddad-aligned center-left ticket—while procedural timelines to the October 4 election leave room for late shifts in turnout or preference consolidation that could clarify second-place positioning.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$45,387
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição para o Senado Federal de São Paulo: 2º Lugar" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "André do Prado" at 44%, followed by "Marina Silva" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eleição para o Senado Federal de São Paulo: 2º Lugar" has generated $45.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eleição para o Senado Federal de São Paulo: 2º Lugar," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição para o Senado Federal de São Paulo: 2º Lugar" is "André do Prado" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marina Silva" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição para o Senado Federal de São Paulo: 2º Lugar" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.