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icon for Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar em Minas Gerais
Política·Brasil

Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar em Minas Gerais

icon for Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar em Minas Gerais
Política·Brasil

Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar em Minas Gerais

Lula 59%

Flavio Bolsonaro 42.0%

Pablo Marçal <1%

Clariana Barao <1%

Polymarket

$23,046 Vol.

Lula 59%

Flavio Bolsonaro 42.0%

Pablo Marçal <1%

Clariana Barao <1%

Polymarket

$23,046 Vol.

icon for Lula

Lula

$8,483 Vol.

59%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$6,024 Vol.

42%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$1,452 Vol.

1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$844 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$525 Vol.

<1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$485 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$484 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$608 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$473 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$491 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$649 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$576 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$1,951 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds the strongest position among traders for first place in Minas Gerais during the October 2026 first round, reflecting consistent leads in recent state-specific polling from institutes such as Quaest, AtlasIntel, and Real Time. Surveys conducted in early September show the incumbent president with 31–44% support in the state, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 27–35%, with other candidates including Augusto Cury, Romeu Zema, and Ronaldo Caiado trailing further behind. Minas Gerais functions as a key swing state whose outcome has historically aligned with national results. Recent campaign activity, including Flávio Bolsonaro's visits and party positioning, has narrowed gaps in some second-round hypotheticals but has not displaced Lula's first-round edge in the latest data. Trader consensus on these probabilities incorporates polling trends, undecided voter shares, and the state's electoral weight.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$23,046
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds the strongest position among traders for first place in Minas Gerais during the October 2026 first round, reflecting consistent leads in recent state-specific polling from institutes such as Quaest, AtlasIntel, and Real Time. Surveys conducted in early September show the incumbent president with 31–44% support in the state, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 27–35%, with other candidates including Augusto Cury, Romeu Zema, and Ronaldo Caiado trailing further behind. Minas Gerais functions as a key swing state whose outcome has historically aligned with national results. Recent campaign activity, including Flávio Bolsonaro's visits and party positioning, has narrowed gaps in some second-round hypotheticals but has not displaced Lula's first-round edge in the latest data. Trader consensus on these probabilities incorporates polling trends, undecided voter shares, and the state's electoral weight.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$23,046
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar em Minas Gerais" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lula" at 59%, followed by "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 42%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 59¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar em Minas Gerais" has generated $23K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar em Minas Gerais," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar em Minas Gerais" is "Lula" at 59%, meaning the market assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 42%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar em Minas Gerais" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.