Strong consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, CBO, IMF, and major banks project U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.2% for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual basis, driven by resilient consumer spending, robust business investment in AI-related capital expenditures, and productivity gains that have offset headwinds from tariffs, elevated energy prices, and slower labor-force growth. Second-quarter 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate with upward revisions to underlying demand, keeping the expansion near potential and recession probabilities low per economist surveys. Market-implied odds near 98% on no negative growth reflect this data-driven outlook and the limited scope for a full-year contraction. Tail risks remain, including a severe oil-price shock from Middle East escalation or abrupt policy shifts that could tip activity into outright decline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCrescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Crescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Sì
2% probabilità
$33,280 Vol.
$33,280 Vol.
28 gen 2027
Sì
2% probabilità
$33,280 Vol.
$33,280 Vol.
28 gen 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, CBO, IMF, and major banks project U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.2% for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual basis, driven by resilient consumer spending, robust business investment in AI-related capital expenditures, and productivity gains that have offset headwinds from tariffs, elevated energy prices, and slower labor-force growth. Second-quarter 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate with upward revisions to underlying demand, keeping the expansion near potential and recession probabilities low per economist surveys. Market-implied odds near 98% on no negative growth reflect this data-driven outlook and the limited scope for a full-year contraction. Tail risks remain, including a severe oil-price shock from Middle East escalation or abrupt policy shifts that could tip activity into outright decline.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$33,280Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, CBO, IMF, and major banks project U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.2% for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual basis, driven by resilient consumer spending, robust business investment in AI-related capital expenditures, and productivity gains that have offset headwinds from tariffs, elevated energy prices, and slower labor-force growth. Second-quarter 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate with upward revisions to underlying demand, keeping the expansion near potential and recession probabilities low per economist surveys. Market-implied odds near 98% on no negative growth reflect this data-driven outlook and the limited scope for a full-year contraction. Tail risks remain, including a severe oil-price shock from Middle East escalation or abrupt policy shifts that could tip activity into outright decline.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$33,280Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Strong consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, CBO, IMF, and major banks project U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.2% for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual basis, driven by resilient consumer spending, robust business investment in AI-related capital expenditures, and productivity gains that have offset headwinds from tariffs, elevated energy prices, and slower labor-force growth. Second-quarter 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate with upward revisions to underlying demand, keeping the expansion near potential and recession probabilities low per economist surveys. Market-implied odds near 98% on no negative growth reflect this data-driven outlook and the limited scope for a full-year contraction. Tail risks remain, including a severe oil-price shock from Middle East escalation or abrupt policy shifts that could tip activity into outright decline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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