Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs and an unchanged 4.1% unemployment rate have reinforced a resilient labor market, while elevated inflation readings—July CPI near 3.4% year-over-year with energy-driven pressures—keep the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75%. These factors underpin Polymarket's 67.5% implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting and 30.5% for a 25 basis point hike. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and a divided committee have tempered cut expectations to just 3.5%. The September 15-16 FOMC decision and September 11 CPI release remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDecisione della Fed in ottobre?
Decisione della Fed in ottobre?
Nessun cambiamento 68%
Aumento di 25 punti base 31%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 3.6%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base <1%
$1,417,837 Vol.
$1,417,837 Vol.
28 ott 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
<1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
4%
Nessun cambiamento
68%
Aumento di 25 punti base
31%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
1%
Nessun cambiamento 68%
Aumento di 25 punti base 31%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 3.6%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base <1%
$1,417,837 Vol.
$1,417,837 Vol.
28 ott 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
$236,585 Vol.
<1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
$545,170 Vol.
4%
Nessun cambiamento
$223,772 Vol.
68%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$254,448 Vol.
31%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$157,861 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs and an unchanged 4.1% unemployment rate have reinforced a resilient labor market, while elevated inflation readings—July CPI near 3.4% year-over-year with energy-driven pressures—keep the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75%. These factors underpin Polymarket's 67.5% implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting and 30.5% for a 25 basis point hike. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and a divided committee have tempered cut expectations to just 3.5%. The September 15-16 FOMC decision and September 11 CPI release remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$1,417,837Data di fine
28 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs and an unchanged 4.1% unemployment rate have reinforced a resilient labor market, while elevated inflation readings—July CPI near 3.4% year-over-year with energy-driven pressures—keep the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75%. These factors underpin Polymarket's 67.5% implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting and 30.5% for a 25 basis point hike. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and a divided committee have tempered cut expectations to just 3.5%. The September 15-16 FOMC decision and September 11 CPI release remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$1,417,837Data di fine
28 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs and an unchanged 4.1% unemployment rate have reinforced a resilient labor market, while elevated inflation readings—July CPI near 3.4% year-over-year with energy-driven pressures—keep the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75%. These factors underpin Polymarket's 67.5% implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting and 30.5% for a 25 basis point hike. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and a divided committee have tempered cut expectations to just 3.5%. The September 15-16 FOMC decision and September 11 CPI release remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
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