Elevated inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market, form the primary driver behind the 70.5% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026. As of early September, the federal funds target range stands at 3.50–3.75%, with the effective rate near 3.63%. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs—exceeding forecasts—while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and recent PCE inflation has printed around 3.7%. Supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions have kept energy prices elevated, prompting more hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and shifting futures pricing toward roughly 60% odds of a September 15–16 hike. The upcoming August CPI release and FOMC decision represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or moderate the path to tighter policy this year.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
78% probabilità
$8,819,362 Vol.
$8,819,362 Vol.
8 dic 2026
Sì
78% probabilità
$8,819,362 Vol.
$8,819,362 Vol.
8 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market, form the primary driver behind the 70.5% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026. As of early September, the federal funds target range stands at 3.50–3.75%, with the effective rate near 3.63%. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs—exceeding forecasts—while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and recent PCE inflation has printed around 3.7%. Supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions have kept energy prices elevated, prompting more hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and shifting futures pricing toward roughly 60% odds of a September 15–16 hike. The upcoming August CPI release and FOMC decision represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or moderate the path to tighter policy this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$8,819,362Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market, form the primary driver behind the 70.5% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026. As of early September, the federal funds target range stands at 3.50–3.75%, with the effective rate near 3.63%. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs—exceeding forecasts—while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and recent PCE inflation has printed around 3.7%. Supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions have kept energy prices elevated, prompting more hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and shifting futures pricing toward roughly 60% odds of a September 15–16 hike. The upcoming August CPI release and FOMC decision represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or moderate the path to tighter policy this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,819,362Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Elevated inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market, form the primary driver behind the 70.5% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026. As of early September, the federal funds target range stands at 3.50–3.75%, with the effective rate near 3.63%. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs—exceeding forecasts—while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and recent PCE inflation has printed around 3.7%. Supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions have kept energy prices elevated, prompting more hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and shifting futures pricing toward roughly 60% odds of a September 15–16 hike. The upcoming August CPI release and FOMC decision represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or moderate the path to tighter policy this year.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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