Recent data show the 30-year Treasury yield trading near 5.28-5.31% as of September 10, 2026, up more than 50 basis points year-over-year amid elevated term premia. Persistent core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with energy price volatility from geopolitical tensions and heavy Treasury issuance tied to fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion, has lifted long-end yields and reduced expectations for near-term policy easing. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish signals, including a higher terminal rate path in the SEP, have reinforced trader consensus that the policy rate may hold above 3% into 2027. Key near-term catalysts include today’s PPI release, Friday’s CPI print, and the September FOMC meeting, which could shift market-implied odds on further yield upside depending on inflation trajectory and labor market resilience.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
30 dic 2026
6,00%
7%
5,80%
8%
5,70%
30%
5,65%
34%
5,60%
38%
5,55%
44%
5,50%
50%
5,45%
56%
5,40%
72%
$5,123 Vol.
6,00%
$573 Vol.
7%
5,80%
$1,045 Vol.
8%
5,70%
$0 Vol.
30%
5,65%
$524 Vol.
34%
5,60%
$242 Vol.
38%
5,55%
$352 Vol.
44%
5,50%
$187 Vol.
50%
5,45%
$386 Vol.
56%
5,40%
$1,812 Vol.
72%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent data show the 30-year Treasury yield trading near 5.28-5.31% as of September 10, 2026, up more than 50 basis points year-over-year amid elevated term premia. Persistent core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with energy price volatility from geopolitical tensions and heavy Treasury issuance tied to fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion, has lifted long-end yields and reduced expectations for near-term policy easing. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish signals, including a higher terminal rate path in the SEP, have reinforced trader consensus that the policy rate may hold above 3% into 2027. Key near-term catalysts include today’s PPI release, Friday’s CPI print, and the September FOMC meeting, which could shift market-implied odds on further yield upside depending on inflation trajectory and labor market resilience.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$5,123Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent data show the 30-year Treasury yield trading near 5.28-5.31% as of September 10, 2026, up more than 50 basis points year-over-year amid elevated term premia. Persistent core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with energy price volatility from geopolitical tensions and heavy Treasury issuance tied to fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion, has lifted long-end yields and reduced expectations for near-term policy easing. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish signals, including a higher terminal rate path in the SEP, have reinforced trader consensus that the policy rate may hold above 3% into 2027. Key near-term catalysts include today’s PPI release, Friday’s CPI print, and the September FOMC meeting, which could shift market-implied odds on further yield upside depending on inflation trajectory and labor market resilience.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$5,123Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Recent data show the 30-year Treasury yield trading near 5.28-5.31% as of September 10, 2026, up more than 50 basis points year-over-year amid elevated term premia. Persistent core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with energy price volatility from geopolitical tensions and heavy Treasury issuance tied to fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion, has lifted long-end yields and reduced expectations for near-term policy easing. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish signals, including a higher terminal rate path in the SEP, have reinforced trader consensus that the policy rate may hold above 3% into 2027. Key near-term catalysts include today’s PPI release, Friday’s CPI print, and the September FOMC meeting, which could shift market-implied odds on further yield upside depending on inflation trajectory and labor market resilience.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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