Recent strength in the 10-year Treasury yield, trading near 4.83–4.85% as of September 9–10, reflects upward pressure from Brent crude surpassing $100 per barrel amid Middle East supply risks, which has revived inflation concerns ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, combined with robust August payrolls, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike to roughly 60%, while the Treasury’s $6 billion long-end buyback fell short of expectations and failed to ease yields. Strong corporate debt issuance tied to AI investments and fiscal supply dynamics have further lifted term premiums. Traders are watching Friday’s CPI release and the FOMC decision for clues on whether yields can retrace lower before month-end or remain anchored near multi-year highs.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$18,809 Vol.
30 set 2026
Sotto 4,76%
49%
Sotto il 4,73%
33%
Sotto il 4,70%
12%
Sotto il 4,67%
22%
Sotto 4,64%
11%
Sotto il 4,61%
5%
Sotto il 4,56%
4%
Sotto il 4,51%
5%
Sotto il 4,45%
3%
$18,809 Vol.
Sotto 4,76%
$7,559 Vol.
49%
Sotto il 4,73%
$1,122 Vol.
33%
Sotto il 4,70%
$3,121 Vol.
12%
Sotto il 4,67%
$195 Vol.
22%
Sotto 4,64%
$1,637 Vol.
11%
Sotto il 4,61%
$2,027 Vol.
5%
Sotto il 4,56%
$763 Vol.
4%
Sotto il 4,51%
$436 Vol.
5%
Sotto il 4,45%
$1,951 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent strength in the 10-year Treasury yield, trading near 4.83–4.85% as of September 9–10, reflects upward pressure from Brent crude surpassing $100 per barrel amid Middle East supply risks, which has revived inflation concerns ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, combined with robust August payrolls, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike to roughly 60%, while the Treasury’s $6 billion long-end buyback fell short of expectations and failed to ease yields. Strong corporate debt issuance tied to AI investments and fiscal supply dynamics have further lifted term premiums. Traders are watching Friday’s CPI release and the FOMC decision for clues on whether yields can retrace lower before month-end or remain anchored near multi-year highs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$18,809Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent strength in the 10-year Treasury yield, trading near 4.83–4.85% as of September 9–10, reflects upward pressure from Brent crude surpassing $100 per barrel amid Middle East supply risks, which has revived inflation concerns ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, combined with robust August payrolls, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike to roughly 60%, while the Treasury’s $6 billion long-end buyback fell short of expectations and failed to ease yields. Strong corporate debt issuance tied to AI investments and fiscal supply dynamics have further lifted term premiums. Traders are watching Friday’s CPI release and the FOMC decision for clues on whether yields can retrace lower before month-end or remain anchored near multi-year highs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$18,809Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Recent strength in the 10-year Treasury yield, trading near 4.83–4.85% as of September 9–10, reflects upward pressure from Brent crude surpassing $100 per barrel amid Middle East supply risks, which has revived inflation concerns ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, combined with robust August payrolls, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike to roughly 60%, while the Treasury’s $6 billion long-end buyback fell short of expectations and failed to ease yields. Strong corporate debt issuance tied to AI investments and fiscal supply dynamics have further lifted term premiums. Traders are watching Friday’s CPI release and the FOMC decision for clues on whether yields can retrace lower before month-end or remain anchored near multi-year highs.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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