Hawkish Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with sticky core inflation near 3% and elevated PCE readings around 3.7%, have anchored the 30-year Treasury yield near 5.28-5.29% as of September 9, 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before year-end. Persistent inflation concerns, reinforced by geopolitical oil price pressures and resilient growth including AI-driven investment, have pushed market-implied terminal rates higher and widened the term premium. Heavy Treasury supply amid fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion and strong corporate issuance further support elevated long-term yields, with the 30-year trading well above its long-term average of 3.38% and up over 50 basis points year-over-year. Upcoming September FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and Treasury auctions will shape near-term movements, while any durable easing in inflation or policy could open room for lower yields.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
30 dic 2026
Sotto il 5,20%
80%
Sotto il 5,15%
72%
Sotto il 5,10%
63%
Sotto 5,05%
55%
Sotto il 5,00%
46%
Sotto il 4,95%
41%
Sotto il 4,90%
35%
Sotto il 4,80%
22%
Sotto il 4,60%
16%
$121 Vol.
Sotto il 5,20%
$0 Vol.
80%
Sotto il 5,15%
$0 Vol.
72%
Sotto il 5,10%
$60 Vol.
63%
Sotto 5,05%
$0 Vol.
55%
Sotto il 5,00%
$0 Vol.
46%
Sotto il 4,95%
$0 Vol.
41%
Sotto il 4,90%
$61 Vol.
35%
Sotto il 4,80%
$0 Vol.
22%
Sotto il 4,60%
$0 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Hawkish Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with sticky core inflation near 3% and elevated PCE readings around 3.7%, have anchored the 30-year Treasury yield near 5.28-5.29% as of September 9, 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before year-end. Persistent inflation concerns, reinforced by geopolitical oil price pressures and resilient growth including AI-driven investment, have pushed market-implied terminal rates higher and widened the term premium. Heavy Treasury supply amid fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion and strong corporate issuance further support elevated long-term yields, with the 30-year trading well above its long-term average of 3.38% and up over 50 basis points year-over-year. Upcoming September FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and Treasury auctions will shape near-term movements, while any durable easing in inflation or policy could open room for lower yields.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$121Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Hawkish Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with sticky core inflation near 3% and elevated PCE readings around 3.7%, have anchored the 30-year Treasury yield near 5.28-5.29% as of September 9, 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before year-end. Persistent inflation concerns, reinforced by geopolitical oil price pressures and resilient growth including AI-driven investment, have pushed market-implied terminal rates higher and widened the term premium. Heavy Treasury supply amid fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion and strong corporate issuance further support elevated long-term yields, with the 30-year trading well above its long-term average of 3.38% and up over 50 basis points year-over-year. Upcoming September FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and Treasury auctions will shape near-term movements, while any durable easing in inflation or policy could open room for lower yields.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$121Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Hawkish Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with sticky core inflation near 3% and elevated PCE readings around 3.7%, have anchored the 30-year Treasury yield near 5.28-5.29% as of September 9, 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before year-end. Persistent inflation concerns, reinforced by geopolitical oil price pressures and resilient growth including AI-driven investment, have pushed market-implied terminal rates higher and widened the term premium. Heavy Treasury supply amid fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion and strong corporate issuance further support elevated long-term yields, with the 30-year trading well above its long-term average of 3.38% and up over 50 basis points year-over-year. Upcoming September FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and Treasury auctions will shape near-term movements, while any durable easing in inflation or policy could open room for lower yields.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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