The 5-year Treasury yield currently trades near 4.62%, up sharply from roughly 3.6% a year earlier amid sticky inflation readings, surging oil prices above $100 per barrel, and resilient labor market data that have shifted market-implied odds toward Federal Reserve rate hikes rather than cuts through late 2026. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and elevated fiscal deficit concerns have kept term premiums wide, limiting downside in the intermediate sector despite Treasury buyback operations. Traders will monitor upcoming CPI and PPI releases plus the next FOMC meeting for signals on whether policy tightening expectations intensify or ease, directly influencing the yield’s floor before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
30 dic 2026
Sotto il 4,50%
84%
Sotto il 4,45%
75%
Sotto il 4,40%
69%
Sotto il 4,35%
61%
Sotto il 4,30%
51%
Sotto il 4,25%
43%
Sotto il 4,20%
37%
Sotto il 4,10%
24%
Sotto il 4,00%
14%
$9,048 Vol.
Sotto il 4,50%
$56 Vol.
84%
Sotto il 4,45%
$0 Vol.
75%
Sotto il 4,40%
$504 Vol.
69%
Sotto il 4,35%
$853 Vol.
61%
Sotto il 4,30%
$0 Vol.
51%
Sotto il 4,25%
$0 Vol.
43%
Sotto il 4,20%
$522 Vol.
37%
Sotto il 4,10%
$5,873 Vol.
24%
Sotto il 4,00%
$1,240 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield currently trades near 4.62%, up sharply from roughly 3.6% a year earlier amid sticky inflation readings, surging oil prices above $100 per barrel, and resilient labor market data that have shifted market-implied odds toward Federal Reserve rate hikes rather than cuts through late 2026. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and elevated fiscal deficit concerns have kept term premiums wide, limiting downside in the intermediate sector despite Treasury buyback operations. Traders will monitor upcoming CPI and PPI releases plus the next FOMC meeting for signals on whether policy tightening expectations intensify or ease, directly influencing the yield’s floor before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$9,048Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield currently trades near 4.62%, up sharply from roughly 3.6% a year earlier amid sticky inflation readings, surging oil prices above $100 per barrel, and resilient labor market data that have shifted market-implied odds toward Federal Reserve rate hikes rather than cuts through late 2026. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and elevated fiscal deficit concerns have kept term premiums wide, limiting downside in the intermediate sector despite Treasury buyback operations. Traders will monitor upcoming CPI and PPI releases plus the next FOMC meeting for signals on whether policy tightening expectations intensify or ease, directly influencing the yield’s floor before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$9,048Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The 5-year Treasury yield currently trades near 4.62%, up sharply from roughly 3.6% a year earlier amid sticky inflation readings, surging oil prices above $100 per barrel, and resilient labor market data that have shifted market-implied odds toward Federal Reserve rate hikes rather than cuts through late 2026. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and elevated fiscal deficit concerns have kept term premiums wide, limiting downside in the intermediate sector despite Treasury buyback operations. Traders will monitor upcoming CPI and PPI releases plus the next FOMC meeting for signals on whether policy tightening expectations intensify or ease, directly influencing the yield’s floor before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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