The market's strong consensus on "No" at 95% reflects the extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, which require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zones. USGS records confirm only a handful worldwide in the past century, with none since the 2011 Tōhoku event; the 2025 Kamchatka quake reached 8.8, and 2026 activity has peaked at several 7.8s. Recurrence intervals typically span decades to centuries per zone, and the brief window remaining through December 2026 further compresses odds. While paleoseismic data indicate longer-term potential in regions like Cascadia, no current monitoring or model consensus signals an imminent M9+ event.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato9.0 o superiore prima del 2027?
9.0 o superiore prima del 2027?
Sì
5% probabilità
$315,215 Vol.
$315,215 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
5% probabilità
$315,215 Vol.
$315,215 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The market's strong consensus on "No" at 95% reflects the extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, which require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zones. USGS records confirm only a handful worldwide in the past century, with none since the 2011 Tōhoku event; the 2025 Kamchatka quake reached 8.8, and 2026 activity has peaked at several 7.8s. Recurrence intervals typically span decades to centuries per zone, and the brief window remaining through December 2026 further compresses odds. While paleoseismic data indicate longer-term potential in regions like Cascadia, no current monitoring or model consensus signals an imminent M9+ event.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$315,215Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The market's strong consensus on "No" at 95% reflects the extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, which require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zones. USGS records confirm only a handful worldwide in the past century, with none since the 2011 Tōhoku event; the 2025 Kamchatka quake reached 8.8, and 2026 activity has peaked at several 7.8s. Recurrence intervals typically span decades to centuries per zone, and the brief window remaining through December 2026 further compresses odds. While paleoseismic data indicate longer-term potential in regions like Cascadia, no current monitoring or model consensus signals an imminent M9+ event.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$315,215Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The market's strong consensus on "No" at 95% reflects the extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, which require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zones. USGS records confirm only a handful worldwide in the past century, with none since the 2011 Tōhoku event; the 2025 Kamchatka quake reached 8.8, and 2026 activity has peaked at several 7.8s. Recurrence intervals typically span decades to centuries per zone, and the brief window remaining through December 2026 further compresses odds. While paleoseismic data indicate longer-term potential in regions like Cascadia, no current monitoring or model consensus signals an imminent M9+ event.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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