**As of early September 2026, 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have occurred worldwide, according to USGS-catalogued data and compilations such as Wikipedia and PlainQuake.** This places the year on a pace slightly below the long-term average of roughly 15–16 events annually, with recent notable events including the M7.8 Philippines (June), M7.5 Venezuela (June, paired with a M7.2), M7.4 Indonesia and Colombia (August), and M7.3 Mexico (July). Global great-earthquake rates exhibit high year-to-year variability driven by tectonic plate interactions at subduction zones and other major faults, without strong short-term clustering in most cases. With roughly 3.5 months remaining, the market-implied odds heavily favor 14–16 total events (50% on 14–16, 30.5% on 17–19), reflecting trader expectations that activity will align closer to historical norms rather than remaining suppressed or surging unusually. No major shifts in seismic monitoring or model consensus have altered this outlook recently.