Trader sentiment for the highest 2026 earthquake magnitude heavily favors outcomes at or below 7.9, driven by the year's recorded maximum of 7.8 (Philippines June event and Indonesia August event) amid 11 total M7.0–7.9 quakes and zero M8.0+ through early September. USGS data show typical subduction-zone activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire without signs of rupture on major megathrust segments capable of producing great earthquakes. Historical patterns indicate roughly one M8+ event annually on average, yet recent months feature only isolated M6+ events, such as the M6.3 Alaska quake in early September, keeping implied probabilities for higher brackets low. Remaining 2026 monitoring will focus on any model shifts or foreshock sequences in high-strain zones.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMassima magnitudo del terremoto nel 2026?
Massima magnitudo del terremoto nel 2026?
7,9 o inferiore 75%
8,0–8,1 9%
8,2 – 8,3 6.7%
8,6 – 8,7 4.5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 gen 2027
7,9 o inferiore
75%
8,0–8,1
9%
8,2 – 8,3
7%
8,4 – 8,5
3%
8,6 – 8,7
5%
8,8 – 8,9
1%
9.0 o superiore
3%
7,9 o inferiore 75%
8,0–8,1 9%
8,2 – 8,3 6.7%
8,6 – 8,7 4.5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 gen 2027
7,9 o inferiore
$2,353 Vol.
75%
8,0–8,1
$562 Vol.
9%
8,2 – 8,3
$331 Vol.
7%
8,4 – 8,5
$201 Vol.
3%
8,6 – 8,7
$306 Vol.
5%
8,8 – 8,9
$203 Vol.
1%
9.0 o superiore
$156 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader sentiment for the highest 2026 earthquake magnitude heavily favors outcomes at or below 7.9, driven by the year's recorded maximum of 7.8 (Philippines June event and Indonesia August event) amid 11 total M7.0–7.9 quakes and zero M8.0+ through early September. USGS data show typical subduction-zone activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire without signs of rupture on major megathrust segments capable of producing great earthquakes. Historical patterns indicate roughly one M8+ event annually on average, yet recent months feature only isolated M6+ events, such as the M6.3 Alaska quake in early September, keeping implied probabilities for higher brackets low. Remaining 2026 monitoring will focus on any model shifts or foreshock sequences in high-strain zones.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercato aperto: Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
Volume
$4,111Data di fine
4 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader sentiment for the highest 2026 earthquake magnitude heavily favors outcomes at or below 7.9, driven by the year's recorded maximum of 7.8 (Philippines June event and Indonesia August event) amid 11 total M7.0–7.9 quakes and zero M8.0+ through early September. USGS data show typical subduction-zone activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire without signs of rupture on major megathrust segments capable of producing great earthquakes. Historical patterns indicate roughly one M8+ event annually on average, yet recent months feature only isolated M6+ events, such as the M6.3 Alaska quake in early September, keeping implied probabilities for higher brackets low. Remaining 2026 monitoring will focus on any model shifts or foreshock sequences in high-strain zones.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$4,111Data di fine
4 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for the highest 2026 earthquake magnitude heavily favors outcomes at or below 7.9, driven by the year's recorded maximum of 7.8 (Philippines June event and Indonesia August event) amid 11 total M7.0–7.9 quakes and zero M8.0+ through early September. USGS data show typical subduction-zone activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire without signs of rupture on major megathrust segments capable of producing great earthquakes. Historical patterns indicate roughly one M8+ event annually on average, yet recent months feature only isolated M6+ events, such as the M6.3 Alaska quake in early September, keeping implied probabilities for higher brackets low. Remaining 2026 monitoring will focus on any model shifts or foreshock sequences in high-strain zones.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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