USGS assessments establish that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault system extends the roughly 1,000–1,200 km required to release the necessary energy. The 1960 Valdivia event at 9.5 remains the verified global maximum, with all subsequent records falling well below this threshold. Recent monitoring through mid-2026 shows typical seismic activity, including an 8.8 event in Kamchatka in 2025 but no M9+ quakes approaching the limit. With only months remaining until 2027, continuous USGS data collection and the absence of precursors such as exceptional strain accumulation underpin the 98.8% market-implied probability of “No.” While magnitude revisions or unforeseen multi-segment ruptures could theoretically alter outcomes, both lack geophysical precedent and would require immediate, confirmed USGS verification to affect resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato10,0 o superiore prima del 2027?
10,0 o superiore prima del 2027?
Sì
1% probabilità
$816,579 Vol.
$816,579 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
1% probabilità
$816,579 Vol.
$816,579 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS assessments establish that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault system extends the roughly 1,000–1,200 km required to release the necessary energy. The 1960 Valdivia event at 9.5 remains the verified global maximum, with all subsequent records falling well below this threshold. Recent monitoring through mid-2026 shows typical seismic activity, including an 8.8 event in Kamchatka in 2025 but no M9+ quakes approaching the limit. With only months remaining until 2027, continuous USGS data collection and the absence of precursors such as exceptional strain accumulation underpin the 98.8% market-implied probability of “No.” While magnitude revisions or unforeseen multi-segment ruptures could theoretically alter outcomes, both lack geophysical precedent and would require immediate, confirmed USGS verification to affect resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$816,579Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS assessments establish that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault system extends the roughly 1,000–1,200 km required to release the necessary energy. The 1960 Valdivia event at 9.5 remains the verified global maximum, with all subsequent records falling well below this threshold. Recent monitoring through mid-2026 shows typical seismic activity, including an 8.8 event in Kamchatka in 2025 but no M9+ quakes approaching the limit. With only months remaining until 2027, continuous USGS data collection and the absence of precursors such as exceptional strain accumulation underpin the 98.8% market-implied probability of “No.” While magnitude revisions or unforeseen multi-segment ruptures could theoretically alter outcomes, both lack geophysical precedent and would require immediate, confirmed USGS verification to affect resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$816,579Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...USGS assessments establish that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault system extends the roughly 1,000–1,200 km required to release the necessary energy. The 1960 Valdivia event at 9.5 remains the verified global maximum, with all subsequent records falling well below this threshold. Recent monitoring through mid-2026 shows typical seismic activity, including an 8.8 event in Kamchatka in 2025 but no M9+ quakes approaching the limit. With only months remaining until 2027, continuous USGS data collection and the absence of precursors such as exceptional strain accumulation underpin the 98.8% market-implied probability of “No.” While magnitude revisions or unforeseen multi-segment ruptures could theoretically alter outcomes, both lack geophysical precedent and would require immediate, confirmed USGS verification to affect resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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