Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor, holds an 89.5% implied probability as the likely winner of the Sergipe gubernatorial race, with Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 10.5% and all other registered candidates below 1%. Traders appear to weigh Mitidieri’s incumbency advantage, established name recognition, and ongoing state government initiatives heavily, even as campaign schedules intensify ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent polling has shown mixed results, with some surveys indicating a tighter contest or slight challenger leads, yet the market pricing reflects broad consensus on the structural edge held by the sitting governor. The six-candidate field, including Ricardo Marques (PL), Dr. Helton (PSOL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), and Taty Cristina de Jesus (DC), remains fragmented, limiting any single opponent’s path to an outright majority.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFábio 90%
Valmir de Francisquinho 11%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$19,773 Vol.
$19,773 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Fábio
90%
Valmir de Francisquinho
11%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
<1%
Emanuel Cacho
<1%
Dr Helton
<1%
Ricardo Marques
<1%
Fábio 90%
Valmir de Francisquinho 11%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$19,773 Vol.
$19,773 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Fábio
$15,659 Vol.
90%
Valmir de Francisquinho
$1,717 Vol.
11%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
$637 Vol.
<1%
Emanuel Cacho
$618 Vol.
<1%
Dr Helton
$699 Vol.
<1%
Ricardo Marques
$443 Vol.
<1%
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor, holds an 89.5% implied probability as the likely winner of the Sergipe gubernatorial race, with Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 10.5% and all other registered candidates below 1%. Traders appear to weigh Mitidieri’s incumbency advantage, established name recognition, and ongoing state government initiatives heavily, even as campaign schedules intensify ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent polling has shown mixed results, with some surveys indicating a tighter contest or slight challenger leads, yet the market pricing reflects broad consensus on the structural edge held by the sitting governor. The six-candidate field, including Ricardo Marques (PL), Dr. Helton (PSOL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), and Taty Cristina de Jesus (DC), remains fragmented, limiting any single opponent’s path to an outright majority.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$19,773Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor, holds an 89.5% implied probability as the likely winner of the Sergipe gubernatorial race, with Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 10.5% and all other registered candidates below 1%. Traders appear to weigh Mitidieri’s incumbency advantage, established name recognition, and ongoing state government initiatives heavily, even as campaign schedules intensify ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent polling has shown mixed results, with some surveys indicating a tighter contest or slight challenger leads, yet the market pricing reflects broad consensus on the structural edge held by the sitting governor. The six-candidate field, including Ricardo Marques (PL), Dr. Helton (PSOL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), and Taty Cristina de Jesus (DC), remains fragmented, limiting any single opponent’s path to an outright majority.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$19,773Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor, holds an 89.5% implied probability as the likely winner of the Sergipe gubernatorial race, with Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 10.5% and all other registered candidates below 1%. Traders appear to weigh Mitidieri’s incumbency advantage, established name recognition, and ongoing state government initiatives heavily, even as campaign schedules intensify ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent polling has shown mixed results, with some surveys indicating a tighter contest or slight challenger leads, yet the market pricing reflects broad consensus on the structural edge held by the sitting governor. The six-candidate field, including Ricardo Marques (PL), Dr. Helton (PSOL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), and Taty Cristina de Jesus (DC), remains fragmented, limiting any single opponent’s path to an outright majority.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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