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icon for Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Sergipe
Politique·Brésil

Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Sergipe

icon for Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Sergipe
Politique·Brésil

Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Sergipe

Lula 97.2%

Flavio Bolsonaro 1.2%

Clariana Barao 1.1%

Hertz Dias <1%

Polymarket

$16,360 Vol.

Lula 97.2%

Flavio Bolsonaro 1.2%

Clariana Barao 1.1%

Hertz Dias <1%

Polymarket

$16,360 Vol.

icon for Lula

Lula

$8,854 Vol.

97%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$832 Vol.

1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$1,169 Vol.

1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$588 Vol.

1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$594 Vol.

1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$566 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$588 Vol.

1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$534 Vol.

1%

icon for Écrivain Augusto Cury

Écrivain Augusto Cury

$556 Vol.

<1%

icon for Vétérinaire Wilson Grassi

Vétérinaire Wilson Grassi

$564 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$515 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$529 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$469 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a commanding 97.3% implied probability of finishing first in Sergipe’s 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state’s consistent alignment with the Workers’ Party in Northeast Brazil. Incumbent advantages, established voter bases in the region, and limited opposition organization at the state level underpin trader consensus. Historical patterns show strong first-round margins for PT candidates in Sergipe, with recent national polling trends reinforcing rather than eroding that position. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unified opposition turnout, significant shifts in federal resource allocation affecting local economies, or late campaign developments that mobilize non-PT voters. Market pricing treats these as low-probability outcomes within the current resolution window.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$16,360
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a commanding 97.3% implied probability of finishing first in Sergipe’s 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state’s consistent alignment with the Workers’ Party in Northeast Brazil. Incumbent advantages, established voter bases in the region, and limited opposition organization at the state level underpin trader consensus. Historical patterns show strong first-round margins for PT candidates in Sergipe, with recent national polling trends reinforcing rather than eroding that position. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unified opposition turnout, significant shifts in federal resource allocation affecting local economies, or late campaign developments that mobilize non-PT voters. Market pricing treats these as low-probability outcomes within the current resolution window.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$16,360
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...

Connexes

icon for Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix au premier tour de l’élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?

Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix au premier tour de l’élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?

84%
Oui
icon for Flavio Bolsonaro obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle brésilienne à São Paulo ?

Flavio Bolsonaro obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle brésilienne à São Paulo ?

89%
Oui
icon for Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle au Brésil en Paraíba ?

Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle au Brésil en Paraíba ?

97%
Oui

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Questions fréquentes

« Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Sergipe » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 13 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Lula » à 97%, suivi de « Flavio Bolsonaro » à 1%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 97¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 97% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Sergipe » a généré $16.4K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Aug 17, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Sergipe », parcourez les 13 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Sergipe » est « Lula » à 97%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 97% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Flavio Bolsonaro » à 1%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Sergipe » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.