In the Acre Senate race for two seats on October 4, traders see a fragmented contest among eight registered candidates, with each voter selecting up to two names. Marcio Bittar (PL), the incumbent seeking reelection, holds the highest implied probability for first place amid polling averages that place him competitively with Gladson Camelí (PP) and Jorge Viana (PT). Mara Rocha (Republicanos) follows in market pricing, reflecting her prior federal deputy experience. Camelí’s recent TRE-AC denial of candidacy registration over a prior criminal conviction—now under appeal to the TSE—has introduced uncertainty, allowing him to campaign provisionally while suppressing his odds relative to earlier surveys. Asset disclosures, coalition alignments, and high undecided shares in late-August polling continue to sustain volatility, with limited late-cycle data available to separate the frontrunners before election day.