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icon for Élection au Sénat de São Paulo : 2e place
Politique·Brésil

Élection au Sénat de São Paulo : 2e place

icon for Élection au Sénat de São Paulo : 2e place
Politique·Brésil

Élection au Sénat de São Paulo : 2e place

André do Prado 39.3%

Marina Silva 25%

Simone Tebet 15%

Guilherme Derrite 14%

Polymarket

$45,362 Vol.

André do Prado 39.3%

Marina Silva 25%

Simone Tebet 15%

Guilherme Derrite 14%

Polymarket

$45,362 Vol.

icon for André do Prado

André do Prado

$6,227 Vol.

42%

icon for Marina Silva

Marina Silva

$10,867 Vol.

25%

icon for Simone Tebet

Simone Tebet

$10,543 Vol.

15%

icon for Guilherme Derrite

Guilherme Derrite

$7,259 Vol.

14%

icon for Salles

Salles

$5,220 Vol.

2%

icon for Marcio Alves

Marcio Alves

$411 Vol.

1%

icon for Ednelson Cesaretti

Ednelson Cesaretti

$580 Vol.

<1%

icon for Geraldo Rufino

Geraldo Rufino

$528 Vol.

<1%

icon for Petter Maahs

Petter Maahs

$757 Vol.

<1%

icon for Weller Gonçalves

Weller Gonçalves

$813 Vol.

<1%

icon for William Teixeira

William Teixeira

$686 Vol.

<1%

icon for Dra. Eliana Ferreira

Dra. Eliana Ferreira

$457 Vol.

<1%

icon for Maíra de Souza

Maíra de Souza

$406 Vol.

<1%

icon for Soninha Francine

Soninha Francine

$608 Vol.

<1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Recent polling shows a tight contest among top contenders for the two São Paulo Senate seats on October 4, 2026, with each voter selecting up to two candidates.** A September 8 Quaest survey placed Marina Silva (Rede) and Guilherme Derrite (PP) tied at 14%, Simone Tebet (PSB) at 12%, André do Prado (PL) at 7%, and Ricardo Salles (Novo) at 3%, amid roughly 45% undecided or blank/null responses. Earlier Datafolha and Quaest releases from July–August reflected similar clustering within margins of error. Marina Silva and Simone Tebet run on the “Desperta São Paulo” coalition tied to Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial bid, drawing support from PT-aligned and center-left voters. Derrite (PP) and Prado (PL) represent the Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) grouping, emphasizing security and state-government alignment. Salles campaigns more independently on the right. The two-vote system, elevated indecision, and polarized national alignments have sustained the close positioning for second place. Trader pricing reflects this balance, with modest recent shifts following the start of free broadcast time in late August. Further separation would likely require clearer polling trends, major endorsements, debates, or late developments altering visibility or turnout among key blocs before election day.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$45,362
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Recent polling shows a tight contest among top contenders for the two São Paulo Senate seats on October 4, 2026, with each voter selecting up to two candidates.** A September 8 Quaest survey placed Marina Silva (Rede) and Guilherme Derrite (PP) tied at 14%, Simone Tebet (PSB) at 12%, André do Prado (PL) at 7%, and Ricardo Salles (Novo) at 3%, amid roughly 45% undecided or blank/null responses. Earlier Datafolha and Quaest releases from July–August reflected similar clustering within margins of error. Marina Silva and Simone Tebet run on the “Desperta São Paulo” coalition tied to Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial bid, drawing support from PT-aligned and center-left voters. Derrite (PP) and Prado (PL) represent the Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) grouping, emphasizing security and state-government alignment. Salles campaigns more independently on the right. The two-vote system, elevated indecision, and polarized national alignments have sustained the close positioning for second place. Trader pricing reflects this balance, with modest recent shifts following the start of free broadcast time in late August. Further separation would likely require clearer polling trends, major endorsements, debates, or late developments altering visibility or turnout among key blocs before election day.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$45,362
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...

Connexes

icon for Will Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?

Will Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?

53%
icon for Alexandre Curi obtiendra-t-il le deuxième plus grand nombre de voix lors de l'élection sénatoriale de 2026 au Paraná ?

Alexandre Curi obtiendra-t-il le deuxième plus grand nombre de voix lors de l'élection sénatoriale de 2026 au Paraná ?

35%
Oui
icon for Leila do Vôlei remportera-t-elle le deuxième plus grand nombre de voix lors de l'élection sénatoriale du District Fédéral en 2026 ?

Leila do Vôlei remportera-t-elle le deuxième plus grand nombre de voix lors de l'élection sénatoriale du District Fédéral en 2026 ?

53%
Oui

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Questions fréquentes

« Élection au Sénat de São Paulo : 2e place » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 14 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « André do Prado » à 42%, suivi de « Marina Silva » à 25%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 42¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 42% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Élection au Sénat de São Paulo : 2e place » a généré $45.4K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Aug 17, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Élection au Sénat de São Paulo : 2e place », parcourez les 14 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Élection au Sénat de São Paulo : 2e place » est « André do Prado » à 42%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 42% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Marina Silva » à 25%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Élection au Sénat de São Paulo : 2e place » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.