Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent seeking re-election on October 4, 2026, with recent polls from AtlasIntel, Quaest, and others showing him at 44-55% in the first round against Fernando Haddad’s 27-41%, while minor candidates remain below 2%. His position stems from consistent polling strength, a broad coalition including parties such as Republicanos, PL, MDB, and PSD, and reported governance approval ratings around 65% in some surveys. Traders price this dominance at 99% due to the absence of major shifts in the final weeks before voting. A first-round victory appears plausible if current trends hold, though scenarios such as unforeseen late developments, significant changes in turnout, or unexpected legal rulings could still alter the outcome before ballots close.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTarcísio de Freitas 99.0%
Fernando Haddad <1%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$314,544 Vol.
$314,544 Vol.
30 juin 2027
Tarcísio de Freitas
99%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Erika Hilton
<1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 99.0%
Fernando Haddad <1%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$314,544 Vol.
$314,544 Vol.
30 juin 2027
Tarcísio de Freitas
$150,101 Vol.
99%
Fernando Haddad
$51,583 Vol.
1%
Erika Hilton
$23,068 Vol.
<1%
Kim Kataguiri
$79,124 Vol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent seeking re-election on October 4, 2026, with recent polls from AtlasIntel, Quaest, and others showing him at 44-55% in the first round against Fernando Haddad’s 27-41%, while minor candidates remain below 2%. His position stems from consistent polling strength, a broad coalition including parties such as Republicanos, PL, MDB, and PSD, and reported governance approval ratings around 65% in some surveys. Traders price this dominance at 99% due to the absence of major shifts in the final weeks before voting. A first-round victory appears plausible if current trends hold, though scenarios such as unforeseen late developments, significant changes in turnout, or unexpected legal rulings could still alter the outcome before ballots close.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Marché ouvert : Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volume
$314,544Date de fin
1 juil. 2027Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47de9d...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent seeking re-election on October 4, 2026, with recent polls from AtlasIntel, Quaest, and others showing him at 44-55% in the first round against Fernando Haddad’s 27-41%, while minor candidates remain below 2%. His position stems from consistent polling strength, a broad coalition including parties such as Republicanos, PL, MDB, and PSD, and reported governance approval ratings around 65% in some surveys. Traders price this dominance at 99% due to the absence of major shifts in the final weeks before voting. A first-round victory appears plausible if current trends hold, though scenarios such as unforeseen late developments, significant changes in turnout, or unexpected legal rulings could still alter the outcome before ballots close.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$314,544Date de fin
1 juil. 2027Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47de9d...Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent seeking re-election on October 4, 2026, with recent polls from AtlasIntel, Quaest, and others showing him at 44-55% in the first round against Fernando Haddad’s 27-41%, while minor candidates remain below 2%. His position stems from consistent polling strength, a broad coalition including parties such as Republicanos, PL, MDB, and PSD, and reported governance approval ratings around 65% in some surveys. Traders price this dominance at 99% due to the absence of major shifts in the final weeks before voting. A first-round victory appears plausible if current trends hold, though scenarios such as unforeseen late developments, significant changes in turnout, or unexpected legal rulings could still alter the outcome before ballots close.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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