Democratic prospects of regaining a House majority in the November 2026 midterms represent the primary driver behind the 67.5% implied probability on a House impeachment vote before the end of the term. Rep. Al Green introduced articles of impeachment on August 24, 2026, citing alleged abuses involving Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations and related civilian deaths; the resolution was referred to the Judiciary Committee without further action. Multiple Democratic lawmakers have signaled willingness to pursue proceedings if the chamber flips, consistent with prior patterns of party-line House votes. Traders weigh the narrow current margin and historical precedent for majority-party impeachments against the low likelihood of Senate conviction, producing the current consensus price. Upcoming midterm results and any committee movement on the pending resolution could shift positioning.