Traders assign a 99% probability that Donald Trump will remain President beyond September 30, reflecting the absence of active removal processes or acute crises capable of triggering resignation, impeachment conviction, or 25th Amendment invocation in the remaining three weeks. Constitutional procedures, including House impeachment followed by a Senate trial or cabinet action with vice-presidential concurrence, require timelines far exceeding the deadline. No recent legislative votes, court rulings, diplomatic developments, or public statements from key actors have introduced credible near-term pressure. While a sudden health event or unforeseen scandal could theoretically alter outcomes before the cutoff, current conditions show no indicators supporting such rapid change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1% chance
$546,052 Vol.
$546,052 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
1% chance
$546,052 Vol.
$546,052 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 99% probability that Donald Trump will remain President beyond September 30, reflecting the absence of active removal processes or acute crises capable of triggering resignation, impeachment conviction, or 25th Amendment invocation in the remaining three weeks. Constitutional procedures, including House impeachment followed by a Senate trial or cabinet action with vice-presidential concurrence, require timelines far exceeding the deadline. No recent legislative votes, court rulings, diplomatic developments, or public statements from key actors have introduced credible near-term pressure. While a sudden health event or unforeseen scandal could theoretically alter outcomes before the cutoff, current conditions show no indicators supporting such rapid change.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ET
Volume
$546,052End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 99% probability that Donald Trump will remain President beyond September 30, reflecting the absence of active removal processes or acute crises capable of triggering resignation, impeachment conviction, or 25th Amendment invocation in the remaining three weeks. Constitutional procedures, including House impeachment followed by a Senate trial or cabinet action with vice-presidential concurrence, require timelines far exceeding the deadline. No recent legislative votes, court rulings, diplomatic developments, or public statements from key actors have introduced credible near-term pressure. While a sudden health event or unforeseen scandal could theoretically alter outcomes before the cutoff, current conditions show no indicators supporting such rapid change.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$546,052End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99% probability that Donald Trump will remain President beyond September 30, reflecting the absence of active removal processes or acute crises capable of triggering resignation, impeachment conviction, or 25th Amendment invocation in the remaining three weeks. Constitutional procedures, including House impeachment followed by a Senate trial or cabinet action with vice-presidential concurrence, require timelines far exceeding the deadline. No recent legislative votes, court rulings, diplomatic developments, or public statements from key actors have introduced credible near-term pressure. While a sudden health event or unforeseen scandal could theoretically alter outcomes before the cutoff, current conditions show no indicators supporting such rapid change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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