Elon Musk’s X activity through the first six days of the September 4–11 window has positioned the 160-179 bracket as the clear market favorite at 50.5% implied probability, with 180-199 trailing at 31.5%. Real-time trackers show roughly 122 posts logged so far, reflecting a steady daily pace of commentary on Tesla developments, X advertising, regulatory topics, and platform dynamics rather than a major news-cycle spike. Historical weekly totals have fluctuated between sub-100 and 220-plus depending on Tesla news flow and public statements, yet the current rhythm aligns closely with the leading range. With one day remaining before resolution, traders are watching for any late surge in replies or quote posts that could push the final tally into the 180s.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated160-179 51%
180-199 32%
140-159 12.6%
200-219 6%
$1,256,698 Vol.
$1,256,698 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
120-139
<1%
140-159
13%
160-179
51%
180-199
32%
200-219
6%
220-239
1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
160-179 51%
180-199 32%
140-159 12.6%
200-219 6%
$1,256,698 Vol.
$1,256,698 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
120-139
$178,624 Vol.
<1%
140-159
$149,519 Vol.
13%
160-179
$67,976 Vol.
51%
180-199
$60,545 Vol.
32%
200-219
$72,687 Vol.
6%
220-239
$65,038 Vol.
1%
240-259
$56,085 Vol.
<1%
260-279
$56,153 Vol.
<1%
280-299
$60,441 Vol.
<1%
300-319
$64,181 Vol.
<1%
320-339
$54,312 Vol.
<1%
340-359
$35,431 Vol.
<1%
360-379
$24,743 Vol.
<1%
380-399
$28,036 Vol.
<1%
400-419
$23,030 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$14,382 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$6,236 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$7,410 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$6,988 Vol.
<1%
500+
$54,827 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 4 12:00 PM ET to September 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s X activity through the first six days of the September 4–11 window has positioned the 160-179 bracket as the clear market favorite at 50.5% implied probability, with 180-199 trailing at 31.5%. Real-time trackers show roughly 122 posts logged so far, reflecting a steady daily pace of commentary on Tesla developments, X advertising, regulatory topics, and platform dynamics rather than a major news-cycle spike. Historical weekly totals have fluctuated between sub-100 and 220-plus depending on Tesla news flow and public statements, yet the current rhythm aligns closely with the leading range. With one day remaining before resolution, traders are watching for any late surge in replies or quote posts that could push the final tally into the 180s.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 4 12:00 PM ET to September 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$1,256,698End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 4 12:00 PM ET to September 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s X activity through the first six days of the September 4–11 window has positioned the 160-179 bracket as the clear market favorite at 50.5% implied probability, with 180-199 trailing at 31.5%. Real-time trackers show roughly 122 posts logged so far, reflecting a steady daily pace of commentary on Tesla developments, X advertising, regulatory topics, and platform dynamics rather than a major news-cycle spike. Historical weekly totals have fluctuated between sub-100 and 220-plus depending on Tesla news flow and public statements, yet the current rhythm aligns closely with the leading range. With one day remaining before resolution, traders are watching for any late surge in replies or quote posts that could push the final tally into the 180s.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 4 12:00 PM ET to September 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$1,256,698End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s X activity through the first six days of the September 4–11 window has positioned the 160-179 bracket as the clear market favorite at 50.5% implied probability, with 180-199 trailing at 31.5%. Real-time trackers show roughly 122 posts logged so far, reflecting a steady daily pace of commentary on Tesla developments, X advertising, regulatory topics, and platform dynamics rather than a major news-cycle spike. Historical weekly totals have fluctuated between sub-100 and 220-plus depending on Tesla news flow and public statements, yet the current rhythm aligns closely with the leading range. With one day remaining before resolution, traders are watching for any late surge in replies or quote posts that could push the final tally into the 180s.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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