Michael Alfonso secured the Republican nomination for Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District in the August 11 primary with nearly 49 percent of the vote in a five-candidate field, aided by President Trump’s endorsement and his family ties to former district representative and current Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy. The open seat, vacated by Rep. Tom Tiffany’s gubernatorial bid, lies in a district that has favored Republicans by wide margins in recent cycles. Democratic nominee Fred Clark advanced from a three-way primary but faces structural disadvantages in a solidly Republican area rated safe by multiple forecasters. Traders assign Alfonso a 94.5 percent implied probability, reflecting these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-07 House Election Winner
WI-07 House Election Winner
$42,374 Vol.
$42,374 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Michael Alfonso (R)
96%
Fred Clark (D)
2%
$42,374 Vol.
$42,374 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Michael Alfonso (R)
$21,551 Vol.
96%
Fred Clark (D)
$20,823 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Michael Alfonso secured the Republican nomination for Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District in the August 11 primary with nearly 49 percent of the vote in a five-candidate field, aided by President Trump’s endorsement and his family ties to former district representative and current Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy. The open seat, vacated by Rep. Tom Tiffany’s gubernatorial bid, lies in a district that has favored Republicans by wide margins in recent cycles. Democratic nominee Fred Clark advanced from a three-way primary but faces structural disadvantages in a solidly Republican area rated safe by multiple forecasters. Traders assign Alfonso a 94.5 percent implied probability, reflecting these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$42,374End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Michael Alfonso secured the Republican nomination for Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District in the August 11 primary with nearly 49 percent of the vote in a five-candidate field, aided by President Trump’s endorsement and his family ties to former district representative and current Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy. The open seat, vacated by Rep. Tom Tiffany’s gubernatorial bid, lies in a district that has favored Republicans by wide margins in recent cycles. Democratic nominee Fred Clark advanced from a three-way primary but faces structural disadvantages in a solidly Republican area rated safe by multiple forecasters. Traders assign Alfonso a 94.5 percent implied probability, reflecting these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$42,374End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Michael Alfonso secured the Republican nomination for Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District in the August 11 primary with nearly 49 percent of the vote in a five-candidate field, aided by President Trump’s endorsement and his family ties to former district representative and current Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy. The open seat, vacated by Rep. Tom Tiffany’s gubernatorial bid, lies in a district that has favored Republicans by wide margins in recent cycles. Democratic nominee Fred Clark advanced from a three-way primary but faces structural disadvantages in a solidly Republican area rated safe by multiple forecasters. Traders assign Alfonso a 94.5 percent implied probability, reflecting these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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