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icon for Which parties will win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?
Politics·Russia

Which parties will win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?

icon for Which parties will win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?
Politics·Russia

Which parties will win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?

NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Polymarket

$4,146 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)

$1,389 Vol.

98%

icon for Rodina

Rodina

$812 Vol.

88%

icon for Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice

Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice

$1,261 Vol.

6%

icon for Russian Ecological Party “The Greens”

Russian Ecological Party “The Greens”

$685 Vol.

2%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”. Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”. These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.The September 18–20, 2026, Russian State Duma election uses a mixed system of proportional representation (5% threshold for list seats) and single-member districts, favoring established parties with automatic ballot access. United Russia leads in recent polls and has finalized its federal list headed by Sergei Lavrov and Sergei Sobyanin. Systemic opposition parties including the CPRF, LDPR, A Just Russia, and New People have registered lists and are positioned to clear the threshold or win districts based on historical performance and candidate slates. Yabloko’s federal list was disqualified by the Supreme Court in August, though some single-mandate candidates remain eligible. Smaller registered parties face steeper barriers to any seats amid limited polling visibility and structural constraints.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”.

Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”.

These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”. Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”. These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$4,146
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”. Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”. These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.The September 18–20, 2026, Russian State Duma election uses a mixed system of proportional representation (5% threshold for list seats) and single-member districts, favoring established parties with automatic ballot access. United Russia leads in recent polls and has finalized its federal list headed by Sergei Lavrov and Sergei Sobyanin. Systemic opposition parties including the CPRF, LDPR, A Just Russia, and New People have registered lists and are positioned to clear the threshold or win districts based on historical performance and candidate slates. Yabloko’s federal list was disqualified by the Supreme Court in August, though some single-mandate candidates remain eligible. Smaller registered parties face steeper barriers to any seats amid limited polling visibility and structural constraints.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”.

Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”.

These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”. Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”. These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$4,146
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which parties will win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)" at 98%, followed by "Rodina" at 88%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Which parties will win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Which parties will win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which parties will win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?" is "A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Rodina" at 88%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which parties will win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.