The safe or solid Republican rating for incumbent Shelley Moore Capito against Democrat Rachel Fetty Anderson has kept national attention and party mobilization low ahead of the November 3 contest, supporting trader expectations for contained turnout in the 400K-500K range. West Virginia’s rural demographics and older electorate have produced historically modest participation in midterm cycles compared with presidential years, as seen in the 2024 Senate race exceeding 748K total votes. The May 12 primaries generated no major surprises, and the September 9 secretary of state report highlighted continued GOP registration gains alongside lower primary participation. Early voting volumes, get-out-the-vote intensity, and any late-cycle national developments remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities among the leading bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWest Virginia Senate Election: Turnout
West Virginia Senate Election: Turnout
450K-500K 43%
400K-450K 38%
500K-550K 20%
600K-650K 5.0%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<400K
3%
400K-450K
38%
450K-500K
43%
500K-550K
20%
550K-600K
4%
600K-650K
5%
650K+
4%
450K-500K 43%
400K-450K 38%
500K-550K 20%
600K-650K 5.0%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<400K
$203 Vol.
3%
400K-450K
$812 Vol.
38%
450K-500K
$1,319 Vol.
43%
500K-550K
$411 Vol.
20%
550K-600K
$189 Vol.
4%
600K-650K
$205 Vol.
5%
650K+
$169 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The safe or solid Republican rating for incumbent Shelley Moore Capito against Democrat Rachel Fetty Anderson has kept national attention and party mobilization low ahead of the November 3 contest, supporting trader expectations for contained turnout in the 400K-500K range. West Virginia’s rural demographics and older electorate have produced historically modest participation in midterm cycles compared with presidential years, as seen in the 2024 Senate race exceeding 748K total votes. The May 12 primaries generated no major surprises, and the September 9 secretary of state report highlighted continued GOP registration gains alongside lower primary participation. Early voting volumes, get-out-the-vote intensity, and any late-cycle national developments remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities among the leading bins.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$3,310End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The safe or solid Republican rating for incumbent Shelley Moore Capito against Democrat Rachel Fetty Anderson has kept national attention and party mobilization low ahead of the November 3 contest, supporting trader expectations for contained turnout in the 400K-500K range. West Virginia’s rural demographics and older electorate have produced historically modest participation in midterm cycles compared with presidential years, as seen in the 2024 Senate race exceeding 748K total votes. The May 12 primaries generated no major surprises, and the September 9 secretary of state report highlighted continued GOP registration gains alongside lower primary participation. Early voting volumes, get-out-the-vote intensity, and any late-cycle national developments remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities among the leading bins.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,310End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The safe or solid Republican rating for incumbent Shelley Moore Capito against Democrat Rachel Fetty Anderson has kept national attention and party mobilization low ahead of the November 3 contest, supporting trader expectations for contained turnout in the 400K-500K range. West Virginia’s rural demographics and older electorate have produced historically modest participation in midterm cycles compared with presidential years, as seen in the 2024 Senate race exceeding 748K total votes. The May 12 primaries generated no major surprises, and the September 9 secretary of state report highlighted continued GOP registration gains alongside lower primary participation. Early voting volumes, get-out-the-vote intensity, and any late-cycle national developments remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities among the leading bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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