Incumbent Republican Bill Hagerty holds a commanding position in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican lean, demonstrated by large margins in recent presidential elections, combined with his unopposed primary and substantial cash reserves exceeding $5 million. Democrat Marquita Bradshaw, who won her August 6 primary with 54.8% of the vote in a rematch of the 2020 contest, faces structural headwinds including limited fundraising and the absence of competitive polling that narrows the gap. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. A shift would require major unforeseen developments such as a health event, scandal, or dramatic national political realignment before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$29,907 Vol.
$29,907 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Bill Hagerty (R)
96%
Marquita Bradshaw (D)
4%
$29,907 Vol.
$29,907 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Bill Hagerty (R)
$19,518 Vol.
96%
Marquita Bradshaw (D)
$10,390 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Bill Hagerty holds a commanding position in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican lean, demonstrated by large margins in recent presidential elections, combined with his unopposed primary and substantial cash reserves exceeding $5 million. Democrat Marquita Bradshaw, who won her August 6 primary with 54.8% of the vote in a rematch of the 2020 contest, faces structural headwinds including limited fundraising and the absence of competitive polling that narrows the gap. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. A shift would require major unforeseen developments such as a health event, scandal, or dramatic national political realignment before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$29,907End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Bill Hagerty holds a commanding position in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican lean, demonstrated by large margins in recent presidential elections, combined with his unopposed primary and substantial cash reserves exceeding $5 million. Democrat Marquita Bradshaw, who won her August 6 primary with 54.8% of the vote in a rematch of the 2020 contest, faces structural headwinds including limited fundraising and the absence of competitive polling that narrows the gap. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. A shift would require major unforeseen developments such as a health event, scandal, or dramatic national political realignment before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$29,907End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Bill Hagerty holds a commanding position in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican lean, demonstrated by large margins in recent presidential elections, combined with his unopposed primary and substantial cash reserves exceeding $5 million. Democrat Marquita Bradshaw, who won her August 6 primary with 54.8% of the vote in a rematch of the 2020 contest, faces structural headwinds including limited fundraising and the absence of competitive polling that narrows the gap. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. A shift would require major unforeseen developments such as a health event, scandal, or dramatic national political realignment before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions