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icon for RI-02 Republican Primary Winner

RI-02 Republican Primary Winner

icon for RI-02 Republican Primary Winner

RI-02 Republican Primary Winner

Polymarket

$35,140 Vol.

Polymarket

$35,140 Vol.

Victor Mellor

$12,766 Vol.

100%

Stephen Skoly

$22,374 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Victor Mellor holds a commanding lead in the Republican primary for Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional District, reflecting trader consensus around his substantial fundraising advantage and broader campaign resources compared to Stephen Skoly. Mellor reported over $3 million raised by late August, dwarfing Skoly’s totals, while securing notable national conservative support including from former national security advisor Michael Flynn. Although the state Republican Party endorsed Skoly at its June convention after the nominating committee passed over Mellor, the primary electorate on September 9 appears to have favored Mellor’s profile as a Marine veteran and business owner emphasizing border security, Second Amendment rights, and parental authority. Late-breaking developments such as official vote certification, any procedural challenges, or unusually high absentee ballot shifts remain the primary factors that could still alter the outcome before final resolution.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$35,140
End Date
Sep 9, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:33 PM ET

Outcome proposed: Yes

Dispute window

Final

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Victor Mellor holds a commanding lead in the Republican primary for Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional District, reflecting trader consensus around his substantial fundraising advantage and broader campaign resources compared to Stephen Skoly. Mellor reported over $3 million raised by late August, dwarfing Skoly’s totals, while securing notable national conservative support including from former national security advisor Michael Flynn. Although the state Republican Party endorsed Skoly at its June convention after the nominating committee passed over Mellor, the primary electorate on September 9 appears to have favored Mellor’s profile as a Marine veteran and business owner emphasizing border security, Second Amendment rights, and parental authority. Late-breaking developments such as official vote certification, any procedural challenges, or unusually high absentee ballot shifts remain the primary factors that could still alter the outcome before final resolution.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$35,140
End Date
Sep 9, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:33 PM ET

Outcome proposed: Yes

Dispute window

Final

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Frequently Asked Questions

"RI-02 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Victor Mellor" at 100%, followed by "Stephen Skoly" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "RI-02 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $35.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "RI-02 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "RI-02 Republican Primary Winner" is "Victor Mellor" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Stephen Skoly" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "RI-02 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.