Recent polling averages show the Liberals maintaining a consistent 12- to 16-point national lead over the Conservatives through September 2026, translating into seat projections of more than 200 seats for the governing party and fewer than 100 for the opposition. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s approval ratings have remained elevated near 60 percent amid ongoing trade discussions with the United States, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre continues to trail significantly in personal favorability, particularly in Ontario and Quebec. These trends have held steady since the 2025 election and subsequent by-elections, producing little movement in seat forecasts throughout the year. The 95.5 percent implied probability for “No” reflects this entrenched positioning in current data. Late-year shifts could still arise from a sharp economic downturn, major policy reversal, or unexpected leadership developments, though none have materialized in recent months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Recent polling averages show the Liberals maintaining a consistent 12- to 16-point national lead over the Conservatives through September 2026, translating into seat projections of more than 200 seats for the governing party and fewer than 100 for the opposition. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s approval ratings have remained elevated near 60 percent amid ongoing trade discussions with the United States, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre continues to trail significantly in personal favorability, particularly in Ontario and Quebec. These trends have held steady since the 2025 election and subsequent by-elections, producing little movement in seat forecasts throughout the year. The 95.5 percent implied probability for “No” reflects this entrenched positioning in current data. Late-year shifts could still arise from a sharp economic downturn, major policy reversal, or unexpected leadership developments, though none have materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Market Opened: Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
Volume
$8,241End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Recent polling averages show the Liberals maintaining a consistent 12- to 16-point national lead over the Conservatives through September 2026, translating into seat projections of more than 200 seats for the governing party and fewer than 100 for the opposition. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s approval ratings have remained elevated near 60 percent amid ongoing trade discussions with the United States, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre continues to trail significantly in personal favorability, particularly in Ontario and Quebec. These trends have held steady since the 2025 election and subsequent by-elections, producing little movement in seat forecasts throughout the year. The 95.5 percent implied probability for “No” reflects this entrenched positioning in current data. Late-year shifts could still arise from a sharp economic downturn, major policy reversal, or unexpected leadership developments, though none have materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Volume
$8,241End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages show the Liberals maintaining a consistent 12- to 16-point national lead over the Conservatives through September 2026, translating into seat projections of more than 200 seats for the governing party and fewer than 100 for the opposition. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s approval ratings have remained elevated near 60 percent amid ongoing trade discussions with the United States, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre continues to trail significantly in personal favorability, particularly in Ontario and Quebec. These trends have held steady since the 2025 election and subsequent by-elections, producing little movement in seat forecasts throughout the year. The 95.5 percent implied probability for “No” reflects this entrenched positioning in current data. Late-year shifts could still arise from a sharp economic downturn, major policy reversal, or unexpected leadership developments, though none have materialized in recent months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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