Recent Canadian CPI prints have hovered near 3% year-over-year through July 2026, propelled primarily by gasoline prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict and elevated oil around $75–90 per barrel, while core measures (CPI-trim, median) and gasoline-excluded inflation remain anchored near 2%. The Bank of Canada projects headline inflation easing toward 2.5% over the second half of 2026 as refinery margins narrow and base effects fade, returning to the 2% target by early 2027, with the policy rate held at 2.25%. Trader consensus reflected in the 38% probability for the 2.5–2.9% annual range incorporates these forecasts alongside upside risks from persistent energy costs or tariff spillovers, tempered by labor-market slack and subdued non-energy price pressures. The August CPI release on September 14 offers the next near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCanada Annual Inflation 2026
Canada Annual Inflation 2026
2.5–2.9% 37.9%
2.0–2.4% 24.8%
3.0-3.4% 17.0%
3.5-3.9% 16.6%
$40,853 Vol.
$40,853 Vol.
Jan 17, 2027
<1.0%
1%
1.0–1.4%
5%
1.5–1.9%
3%
2.0–2.4%
25%
2.5–2.9%
38%
3.0-3.4%
17%
3.5-3.9%
17%
4.0%+
3%
2.5–2.9% 37.9%
2.0–2.4% 24.8%
3.0-3.4% 17.0%
3.5-3.9% 16.6%
$40,853 Vol.
$40,853 Vol.
Jan 17, 2027
<1.0%
$1,220 Vol.
1%
1.0–1.4%
$5,465 Vol.
5%
1.5–1.9%
$3,464 Vol.
3%
2.0–2.4%
$2,009 Vol.
25%
2.5–2.9%
$10,135 Vol.
38%
3.0-3.4%
$14,031 Vol.
17%
3.5-3.9%
$3,990 Vol.
17%
4.0%+
$539 Vol.
3%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Recent Canadian CPI prints have hovered near 3% year-over-year through July 2026, propelled primarily by gasoline prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict and elevated oil around $75–90 per barrel, while core measures (CPI-trim, median) and gasoline-excluded inflation remain anchored near 2%. The Bank of Canada projects headline inflation easing toward 2.5% over the second half of 2026 as refinery margins narrow and base effects fade, returning to the 2% target by early 2027, with the policy rate held at 2.25%. Trader consensus reflected in the 38% probability for the 2.5–2.9% annual range incorporates these forecasts alongside upside risks from persistent energy costs or tariff spillovers, tempered by labor-market slack and subdued non-energy price pressures. The August CPI release on September 14 offers the next near-term catalyst.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Volume
$40,853End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Recent Canadian CPI prints have hovered near 3% year-over-year through July 2026, propelled primarily by gasoline prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict and elevated oil around $75–90 per barrel, while core measures (CPI-trim, median) and gasoline-excluded inflation remain anchored near 2%. The Bank of Canada projects headline inflation easing toward 2.5% over the second half of 2026 as refinery margins narrow and base effects fade, returning to the 2% target by early 2027, with the policy rate held at 2.25%. Trader consensus reflected in the 38% probability for the 2.5–2.9% annual range incorporates these forecasts alongside upside risks from persistent energy costs or tariff spillovers, tempered by labor-market slack and subdued non-energy price pressures. The August CPI release on September 14 offers the next near-term catalyst.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Volume
$40,853End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Canadian CPI prints have hovered near 3% year-over-year through July 2026, propelled primarily by gasoline prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict and elevated oil around $75–90 per barrel, while core measures (CPI-trim, median) and gasoline-excluded inflation remain anchored near 2%. The Bank of Canada projects headline inflation easing toward 2.5% over the second half of 2026 as refinery margins narrow and base effects fade, returning to the 2% target by early 2027, with the policy rate held at 2.25%. Trader consensus reflected in the 38% probability for the 2.5–2.9% annual range incorporates these forecasts alongside upside risks from persistent energy costs or tariff spillovers, tempered by labor-market slack and subdued non-energy price pressures. The August CPI release on September 14 offers the next near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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