China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) market prices the 4.3–4.6% band highest at 56% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus that subdued domestic demand will keep the print near Q2’s 4.3% outcome. Weak retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and property activity through August have offset resilient exports, which rose 25% year-over-year in the latest reading on strong high-tech and AI-related shipments. Recent CPI and PPI rebounds to 0.8% and 3.8% respectively signal modest price support but do not yet indicate broad demand recovery. Incremental fiscal measures and potential modest rate cuts remain the key swing factors ahead of the mid-October release, with leading indicators pointing to continued K-shaped divergence between external and domestic momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.3-4.6% 56%
4.6-4.9% 24%
4.0-4.3% 17.6%
3.7-4.0% <1%
$35,388 Vol.
$35,388 Vol.
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
1%
4.0-4.3%
18%
4.3-4.6%
56%
4.6-4.9%
24%
4.9-5.2%
<1%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
<1%
4.3-4.6% 56%
4.6-4.9% 24%
4.0-4.3% 17.6%
3.7-4.0% <1%
$35,388 Vol.
$35,388 Vol.
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
$1,362 Vol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$694 Vol.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$1,491 Vol.
1%
4.0-4.3%
$2,574 Vol.
18%
4.3-4.6%
$13,614 Vol.
56%
4.6-4.9%
$9,062 Vol.
24%
4.9-5.2%
$3,623 Vol.
<1%
5.2-5.5%
$1,537 Vol.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,432 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) market prices the 4.3–4.6% band highest at 56% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus that subdued domestic demand will keep the print near Q2’s 4.3% outcome. Weak retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and property activity through August have offset resilient exports, which rose 25% year-over-year in the latest reading on strong high-tech and AI-related shipments. Recent CPI and PPI rebounds to 0.8% and 3.8% respectively signal modest price support but do not yet indicate broad demand recovery. Incremental fiscal measures and potential modest rate cuts remain the key swing factors ahead of the mid-October release, with leading indicators pointing to continued K-shaped divergence between external and domestic momentum.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$35,388End Date
Oct 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) market prices the 4.3–4.6% band highest at 56% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus that subdued domestic demand will keep the print near Q2’s 4.3% outcome. Weak retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and property activity through August have offset resilient exports, which rose 25% year-over-year in the latest reading on strong high-tech and AI-related shipments. Recent CPI and PPI rebounds to 0.8% and 3.8% respectively signal modest price support but do not yet indicate broad demand recovery. Incremental fiscal measures and potential modest rate cuts remain the key swing factors ahead of the mid-October release, with leading indicators pointing to continued K-shaped divergence between external and domestic momentum.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$35,388End Date
Oct 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) market prices the 4.3–4.6% band highest at 56% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus that subdued domestic demand will keep the print near Q2’s 4.3% outcome. Weak retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and property activity through August have offset resilient exports, which rose 25% year-over-year in the latest reading on strong high-tech and AI-related shipments. Recent CPI and PPI rebounds to 0.8% and 3.8% respectively signal modest price support but do not yet indicate broad demand recovery. Incremental fiscal measures and potential modest rate cuts remain the key swing factors ahead of the mid-October release, with leading indicators pointing to continued K-shaped divergence between external and domestic momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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