Trader sentiment on September nonfarm payrolls reflects a cooling labor market amid mixed recent indicators, with the closely matched leading bins of 0-50k (27.5%) and 50-100k (27%) jobs added highlighting uncertainty over the pace of slowdown. Recent data on initial claims, ADP private payrolls, and revisions to prior months have tempered expectations for robust growth, while persistent inflation readings and Treasury yield movements keep focus on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Market-implied odds price in a higher probability of subdued hiring than historical averages, driven by sector-specific weakness in manufacturing and services. The October release itself remains the key near-term catalyst, with any surprises in unemployment or wage growth likely to shift probabilities across bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many jobs added in September?
How many jobs added in September?
0 to 50k 28%
50k to 100k 27%
150k to 200k 14%
-50k to 0 12%
<-50k
8%
-50k to 0
12%
0 to 50k
28%
50k to 100k
27%
100k to 150k
12%
150k to 200k
14%
200k+
8%
0 to 50k 28%
50k to 100k 27%
150k to 200k 14%
-50k to 0 12%
<-50k
8%
-50k to 0
12%
0 to 50k
28%
50k to 100k
27%
100k to 150k
12%
150k to 200k
14%
200k+
8%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:37 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Resolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on September nonfarm payrolls reflects a cooling labor market amid mixed recent indicators, with the closely matched leading bins of 0-50k (27.5%) and 50-100k (27%) jobs added highlighting uncertainty over the pace of slowdown. Recent data on initial claims, ADP private payrolls, and revisions to prior months have tempered expectations for robust growth, while persistent inflation readings and Treasury yield movements keep focus on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Market-implied odds price in a higher probability of subdued hiring than historical averages, driven by sector-specific weakness in manufacturing and services. The October release itself remains the key near-term catalyst, with any surprises in unemployment or wage growth likely to shift probabilities across bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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