The closely matched probabilities between no change at 47.5% and a 25 basis point hike at 43.5% reflect trader uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's December policy path, shaped by recent inflation readings and labor market resilience that have tempered expectations for easing. Persistent core CPI pressures above target levels, combined with steady nonfarm payroll gains and wage growth, support the case for maintaining or slightly tightening the federal funds rate, while softening leading indicators like jobless claims introduce downside risks. Market-implied odds price in these competing forces ahead of key data releases and FOMC communications, underscoring how shifts in Treasury yields and growth forecasts could tip sentiment toward either outcome by year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKeine Änderung 48%
25 bps increase 44%
25 bps decrease 6.5%
50+ bps increase 2.5%
$569,204 Vol.
$569,204 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
6%
Keine Änderung
48%
25 bps increase
44%
50+ bps increase
3%
Keine Änderung 48%
25 bps increase 44%
25 bps decrease 6.5%
50+ bps increase 2.5%
$569,204 Vol.
$569,204 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
50+ bps decrease
$92,690 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$144,402 Vol.
6%
Keine Änderung
$101,819 Vol.
48%
25 bps increase
$139,606 Vol.
44%
50+ bps increase
$90,687 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The closely matched probabilities between no change at 47.5% and a 25 basis point hike at 43.5% reflect trader uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's December policy path, shaped by recent inflation readings and labor market resilience that have tempered expectations for easing. Persistent core CPI pressures above target levels, combined with steady nonfarm payroll gains and wage growth, support the case for maintaining or slightly tightening the federal funds rate, while softening leading indicators like jobless claims introduce downside risks. Market-implied odds price in these competing forces ahead of key data releases and FOMC communications, underscoring how shifts in Treasury yields and growth forecasts could tip sentiment toward either outcome by year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volumen
$569,204Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The closely matched probabilities between no change at 47.5% and a 25 basis point hike at 43.5% reflect trader uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's December policy path, shaped by recent inflation readings and labor market resilience that have tempered expectations for easing. Persistent core CPI pressures above target levels, combined with steady nonfarm payroll gains and wage growth, support the case for maintaining or slightly tightening the federal funds rate, while softening leading indicators like jobless claims introduce downside risks. Market-implied odds price in these competing forces ahead of key data releases and FOMC communications, underscoring how shifts in Treasury yields and growth forecasts could tip sentiment toward either outcome by year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$569,204Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities between no change at 47.5% and a 25 basis point hike at 43.5% reflect trader uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's December policy path, shaped by recent inflation readings and labor market resilience that have tempered expectations for easing. Persistent core CPI pressures above target levels, combined with steady nonfarm payroll gains and wage growth, support the case for maintaining or slightly tightening the federal funds rate, while softening leading indicators like jobless claims introduce downside risks. Market-implied odds price in these competing forces ahead of key data releases and FOMC communications, underscoring how shifts in Treasury yields and growth forecasts could tip sentiment toward either outcome by year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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