Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, followed by repeated public expressions of confidence despite the September rate hike to 3.75-4.00%, anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any firing attempt through year-end. The president has deflected criticism toward other board members, reiterated respect for central bank independence, and avoided direct confrontation even as inflation data and Middle East developments prompted the unanimous FOMC tightening. Legal protections for the chair position, the absence of vacancies for replacements, and the administration’s emphasis on policy stability amid midterms further reinforce trader consensus. Tail risks remain limited to an abrupt personal rift or sustained policy clashes that could escalate beyond current rhetoric.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert1% Chance
$30,017 Vol.
$30,017 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
1% Chance
$30,017 Vol.
$30,017 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, followed by repeated public expressions of confidence despite the September rate hike to 3.75-4.00%, anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any firing attempt through year-end. The president has deflected criticism toward other board members, reiterated respect for central bank independence, and avoided direct confrontation even as inflation data and Middle East developments prompted the unanimous FOMC tightening. Legal protections for the chair position, the absence of vacancies for replacements, and the administration’s emphasis on policy stability amid midterms further reinforce trader consensus. Tail risks remain limited to an abrupt personal rift or sustained policy clashes that could escalate beyond current rhetoric.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Volumen
$30,017Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, followed by repeated public expressions of confidence despite the September rate hike to 3.75-4.00%, anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any firing attempt through year-end. The president has deflected criticism toward other board members, reiterated respect for central bank independence, and avoided direct confrontation even as inflation data and Middle East developments prompted the unanimous FOMC tightening. Legal protections for the chair position, the absence of vacancies for replacements, and the administration’s emphasis on policy stability amid midterms further reinforce trader consensus. Tail risks remain limited to an abrupt personal rift or sustained policy clashes that could escalate beyond current rhetoric.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$30,017Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, followed by repeated public expressions of confidence despite the September rate hike to 3.75-4.00%, anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any firing attempt through year-end. The president has deflected criticism toward other board members, reiterated respect for central bank independence, and avoided direct confrontation even as inflation data and Middle East developments prompted the unanimous FOMC tightening. Legal protections for the chair position, the absence of vacancies for replacements, and the administration’s emphasis on policy stability amid midterms further reinforce trader consensus. Tail risks remain limited to an abrupt personal rift or sustained policy clashes that could escalate beyond current rhetoric.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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