Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing unfinished inflation work, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting to 30.5%. Traders price the 3.50-3.75% federal funds range as the baseline outcome at 67.5%, reflecting resilient labor conditions and energy-driven price pressures that have shifted some forecasts toward tightening, though core CPI trends near 2.5% and the pending August inflation release on September 11 continue to anchor expectations for a hold following the September 15-16 decision.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertFed-Entscheidung im Oktober?
Fed-Entscheidung im Oktober?
Keine Änderung 68%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 31%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 3.6%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$1,417,437 Vol.
$1,417,437 Vol.
28. Okt. 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
4%
Keine Änderung
68%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
31%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
Keine Änderung 68%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 31%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 3.6%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$1,417,437 Vol.
$1,417,437 Vol.
28. Okt. 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$236,585 Vol.
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
$545,170 Vol.
4%
Keine Änderung
$223,772 Vol.
68%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
$254,048 Vol.
31%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$157,861 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing unfinished inflation work, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting to 30.5%. Traders price the 3.50-3.75% federal funds range as the baseline outcome at 67.5%, reflecting resilient labor conditions and energy-driven price pressures that have shifted some forecasts toward tightening, though core CPI trends near 2.5% and the pending August inflation release on September 11 continue to anchor expectations for a hold following the September 15-16 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volumen
$1,417,437Enddatum
28. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing unfinished inflation work, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting to 30.5%. Traders price the 3.50-3.75% federal funds range as the baseline outcome at 67.5%, reflecting resilient labor conditions and energy-driven price pressures that have shifted some forecasts toward tightening, though core CPI trends near 2.5% and the pending August inflation release on September 11 continue to anchor expectations for a hold following the September 15-16 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$1,417,437Enddatum
28. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing unfinished inflation work, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting to 30.5%. Traders price the 3.50-3.75% federal funds range as the baseline outcome at 67.5%, reflecting resilient labor conditions and energy-driven price pressures that have shifted some forecasts toward tightening, though core CPI trends near 2.5% and the pending August inflation release on September 11 continue to anchor expectations for a hold following the September 15-16 decision.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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