**Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation pressures amid Middle East supply shocks are the main forces shaping trader views on the Federal Reserve’s July–October 2026 policy path.** The July 28–29 FOMC meeting held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75 percent by a 9–3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike, while strong August job gains of 162,000 and a steady 4.1 percent unemployment rate have lifted market-implied odds of tightening. Elevated core inflation readings and energy-price risks from the Iran conflict have reinforced expectations that the September 15–16 and October 27–28 decisions may deviate from a straightforward hold-hold-hold sequence. The 62.5 percent probability assigned to “Other” reflects this uncertainty, as futures markets price in a meaningful chance of at least one 25-basis-point increase before year-end, while the 32.5 percent on Pause–Pause–Pause captures the baseline economist consensus for steady policy.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertOther 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 33%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$748,700 Vol.
$748,700 Vol.
28. Okt. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
33%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
63%
Other 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 33%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$748,700 Vol.
$748,700 Vol.
28. Okt. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$251,168 Vol.
33%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$62,636 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$43,317 Vol.
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$28,302 Vol.
<1%
Other
$319,789 Vol.
63%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation pressures amid Middle East supply shocks are the main forces shaping trader views on the Federal Reserve’s July–October 2026 policy path.** The July 28–29 FOMC meeting held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75 percent by a 9–3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike, while strong August job gains of 162,000 and a steady 4.1 percent unemployment rate have lifted market-implied odds of tightening. Elevated core inflation readings and energy-price risks from the Iran conflict have reinforced expectations that the September 15–16 and October 27–28 decisions may deviate from a straightforward hold-hold-hold sequence. The 62.5 percent probability assigned to “Other” reflects this uncertainty, as futures markets price in a meaningful chance of at least one 25-basis-point increase before year-end, while the 32.5 percent on Pause–Pause–Pause captures the baseline economist consensus for steady policy.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Markt eröffnet: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volumen
$748,700Enddatum
28. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation pressures amid Middle East supply shocks are the main forces shaping trader views on the Federal Reserve’s July–October 2026 policy path.** The July 28–29 FOMC meeting held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75 percent by a 9–3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike, while strong August job gains of 162,000 and a steady 4.1 percent unemployment rate have lifted market-implied odds of tightening. Elevated core inflation readings and energy-price risks from the Iran conflict have reinforced expectations that the September 15–16 and October 27–28 decisions may deviate from a straightforward hold-hold-hold sequence. The 62.5 percent probability assigned to “Other” reflects this uncertainty, as futures markets price in a meaningful chance of at least one 25-basis-point increase before year-end, while the 32.5 percent on Pause–Pause–Pause captures the baseline economist consensus for steady policy.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$748,700Enddatum
28. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...**Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation pressures amid Middle East supply shocks are the main forces shaping trader views on the Federal Reserve’s July–October 2026 policy path.** The July 28–29 FOMC meeting held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75 percent by a 9–3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike, while strong August job gains of 162,000 and a steady 4.1 percent unemployment rate have lifted market-implied odds of tightening. Elevated core inflation readings and energy-price risks from the Iran conflict have reinforced expectations that the September 15–16 and October 27–28 decisions may deviate from a straightforward hold-hold-hold sequence. The 62.5 percent probability assigned to “Other” reflects this uncertainty, as futures markets price in a meaningful chance of at least one 25-basis-point increase before year-end, while the 32.5 percent on Pause–Pause–Pause captures the baseline economist consensus for steady policy.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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