The federal funds target range currently stands at 3.75–4.00% following the October 28, 2026 FOMC decision to hold rates steady amid elevated inflation and a strong pace of economic expansion. Market-implied odds on Polymarket assign the highest probability to the upper bound reaching 4.25% before year-end 2026, reflecting trader consensus that persistent price pressures and resilient GDP growth will prompt at least one additional 25-basis-point hike. Recent data show the effective federal funds rate near 3.88%, with futures markets pricing roughly an 80% chance of a December move. Key upcoming catalysts include the December 8–9 FOMC meeting and incoming CPI releases that could shift the balance between further tightening and a longer pause.