The Federal Reserve’s October 28 decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.75–4.00 percent, with two dissents favoring a hike, reflects persistent inflation pressures amid resilient growth. September CPI rose 0.6 percent month-over-month and 3.7 percent year-over-year, with core measures also firming as energy shocks broadened into rents, airfares, and goods prices. The labor market remains tight at a 4.2 percent unemployment rate, while Q3 GDP growth accelerated above 3 percent annualized on strong consumer spending and AI-related investment. Futures and prediction markets now assign roughly 70 percent odds to a 25-basis-point hike at the December 8–9 FOMC meeting, with further tightening possible into 2027. Traders are watching the November 6 employment report, November 10 CPI release, and December dot plot for signals on whether the policy rate will peak above 4.25 percent before any eventual easing.