Google leads with an 87% implied probability as the second-best AI lab by end of September, reflecting its recent Gemini model updates, DeepMind research momentum, and broad integration of large language models across search and cloud platforms. Trader consensus highlights steady capability gains and enterprise adoption that have narrowed the gap with frontrunners, while lower odds for OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta stem from fewer major releases or benchmark shifts in the past 30 days. With resolution imminent, any late-September model announcements or third-party evaluations could still alter sentiment in this closely watched tech sector market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Google 84%
Meta 7.1%
OpenAI 4.2%
Moonshot 1.9%
$108,207 交易量
$108,207 交易量
2026-09-30
84%
Meta
7%
OpenAI
4%
Moonshot
2%
Alibaba
2%
DeepSeek
2%
Anthropic
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 84%
Meta 7.1%
OpenAI 4.2%
Moonshot 1.9%
$108,207 交易量
$108,207 交易量
2026-09-30
$34,284 交易量
84%
Meta
$13,333 交易量
7%
OpenAI
$8,244 交易量
4%
Moonshot
$3,929 交易量
2%
Alibaba
$14,784 交易量
2%
DeepSeek
$3,881 交易量
2%
Anthropic
$5,421 交易量
1%
SpaceXAI
$3,876 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$3,777 交易量
<1%
Baidu
$2,229 交易量
<1%
Xiaomi
$2,675 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$1,494 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$534 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$1,128 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$1,430 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$1,452 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$1,442 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$1,024 交易量
<1%
Tencent
$1,507 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$477 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$1,306 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google leads with an 87% implied probability as the second-best AI lab by end of September, reflecting its recent Gemini model updates, DeepMind research momentum, and broad integration of large language models across search and cloud platforms. Trader consensus highlights steady capability gains and enterprise adoption that have narrowed the gap with frontrunners, while lower odds for OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta stem from fewer major releases or benchmark shifts in the past 30 days. With resolution imminent, any late-September model announcements or third-party evaluations could still alter sentiment in this closely watched tech sector market.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$108,207结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google leads with an 87% implied probability as the second-best AI lab by end of September, reflecting its recent Gemini model updates, DeepMind research momentum, and broad integration of large language models across search and cloud platforms. Trader consensus highlights steady capability gains and enterprise adoption that have narrowed the gap with frontrunners, while lower odds for OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta stem from fewer major releases or benchmark shifts in the past 30 days. With resolution imminent, any late-September model announcements or third-party evaluations could still alter sentiment in this closely watched tech sector market.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$108,207结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETGoogle leads with an 87% implied probability as the second-best AI lab by end of September, reflecting its recent Gemini model updates, DeepMind research momentum, and broad integration of large language models across search and cloud platforms. Trader consensus highlights steady capability gains and enterprise adoption that have narrowed the gap with frontrunners, while lower odds for OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta stem from fewer major releases or benchmark shifts in the past 30 days. With resolution imminent, any late-September model announcements or third-party evaluations could still alter sentiment in this closely watched tech sector market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题