Anthropic holds a commanding 74.5% implied probability in this market, driven by its recent large language model releases that have demonstrated leading results on key benchmarks for controlled generation and safety alignment. Traders appear to view the company's technical edge in style-constrained outputs as durable through late November, especially amid slower competitive responses from labs like Google and Meta. Lower odds for OpenAI, Amazon, and others reflect ongoing gaps in demonstrated capabilities rather than marketing claims. Key upcoming catalysts include any October model updates or third-party evaluations that could shift sentiment before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 75%
谷歌 8%
Meta 7%
亚马逊 4.8%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
Anthropic
75%
谷歌
8%
Meta
7%
亚马逊
5%
美团
3%
StepFun
3%
Thinky
3%
英伟达
3%
OpenAI
2%
Moonshot
2%
阿里巴巴
2%
腾讯
1%
百度
1%
字节跳动
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
小米
1%
DeepSeek
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
微软
1%
Anthropic 75%
谷歌 8%
Meta 7%
亚马逊 4.8%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
Anthropic
$1,221 交易量
75%
谷歌
$188 交易量
8%
Meta
$194 交易量
7%
亚马逊
$191 交易量
5%
美团
$191 交易量
3%
StepFun
$191 交易量
3%
Thinky
$193 交易量
3%
英伟达
$180 交易量
3%
OpenAI
$182 交易量
2%
Moonshot
$182 交易量
2%
阿里巴巴
$166 交易量
2%
腾讯
$186 交易量
1%
百度
$145 交易量
1%
字节跳动
$131 交易量
1%
SpaceXAI
$170 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$187 交易量
1%
小米
$190 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$191 交易量
1%
MiniMax
$191 交易量
1%
Mistral
$231 交易量
1%
微软
$260 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds a commanding 74.5% implied probability in this market, driven by its recent large language model releases that have demonstrated leading results on key benchmarks for controlled generation and safety alignment. Traders appear to view the company's technical edge in style-constrained outputs as durable through late November, especially amid slower competitive responses from labs like Google and Meta. Lower odds for OpenAI, Amazon, and others reflect ongoing gaps in demonstrated capabilities rather than marketing claims. Key upcoming catalysts include any October model updates or third-party evaluations that could shift sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
交易量
$4,960结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds a commanding 74.5% implied probability in this market, driven by its recent large language model releases that have demonstrated leading results on key benchmarks for controlled generation and safety alignment. Traders appear to view the company's technical edge in style-constrained outputs as durable through late November, especially amid slower competitive responses from labs like Google and Meta. Lower odds for OpenAI, Amazon, and others reflect ongoing gaps in demonstrated capabilities rather than marketing claims. Key upcoming catalysts include any October model updates or third-party evaluations that could shift sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$4,960结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETAnthropic holds a commanding 74.5% implied probability in this market, driven by its recent large language model releases that have demonstrated leading results on key benchmarks for controlled generation and safety alignment. Traders appear to view the company's technical edge in style-constrained outputs as durable through late November, especially amid slower competitive responses from labs like Google and Meta. Lower odds for OpenAI, Amazon, and others reflect ongoing gaps in demonstrated capabilities rather than marketing claims. Key upcoming catalysts include any October model updates or third-party evaluations that could shift sentiment before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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