Trader sentiment positions OpenAI as the clear frontrunner for second-best AI agent lab by end of October, reflected in its 81.5% implied probability. This stems from its leading large language model releases, demonstrated agentic capabilities in autonomous task handling, and broad developer ecosystem adoption that outpace competitors. Anthropic follows at 13.5%, supported by steady Claude model progress and safety-focused positioning, while Google, Meta, and emerging labs trail below 3% amid slower agent-specific advancements and integration timelines. Key upcoming catalysts include new model benchmarks and industry conferences that could shift consensus if they reveal meaningful capability gains or delays in OpenAI's roadmap.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于OpenAI 81%
Anthropic 16%
SpaceXAI 2.4%
Google 2.0%
$45,535 交易量
$45,535 交易量
2026-10-31
OpenAI
81%
Anthropic
16%
SpaceXAI
2%
2%
Moonshot
1%
亚马逊
1%
Z.ai
1%
MiniMax
1%
百度
1%
美团
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Meta
<1%
小米
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
英伟达
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
Mistral
<1%
微软
<1%
OpenAI 81%
Anthropic 16%
SpaceXAI 2.4%
Google 2.0%
$45,535 交易量
$45,535 交易量
2026-10-31
OpenAI
$15,524 交易量
81%
Anthropic
$8,981 交易量
16%
SpaceXAI
$1,065 交易量
2%
$2,076 交易量
2%
Moonshot
$8,079 交易量
1%
亚马逊
$866 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$798 交易量
1%
MiniMax
$977 交易量
1%
百度
$839 交易量
1%
美团
$849 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$910 交易量
<1%
Meta
$767 交易量
<1%
小米
$473 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$911 交易量
<1%
英伟达
$616 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$825 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$578 交易量
<1%
微软
$400 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment positions OpenAI as the clear frontrunner for second-best AI agent lab by end of October, reflected in its 81.5% implied probability. This stems from its leading large language model releases, demonstrated agentic capabilities in autonomous task handling, and broad developer ecosystem adoption that outpace competitors. Anthropic follows at 13.5%, supported by steady Claude model progress and safety-focused positioning, while Google, Meta, and emerging labs trail below 3% amid slower agent-specific advancements and integration timelines. Key upcoming catalysts include new model benchmarks and industry conferences that could shift consensus if they reveal meaningful capability gains or delays in OpenAI's roadmap.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
交易量
$45,535结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment positions OpenAI as the clear frontrunner for second-best AI agent lab by end of October, reflected in its 81.5% implied probability. This stems from its leading large language model releases, demonstrated agentic capabilities in autonomous task handling, and broad developer ecosystem adoption that outpace competitors. Anthropic follows at 13.5%, supported by steady Claude model progress and safety-focused positioning, while Google, Meta, and emerging labs trail below 3% amid slower agent-specific advancements and integration timelines. Key upcoming catalysts include new model benchmarks and industry conferences that could shift consensus if they reveal meaningful capability gains or delays in OpenAI's roadmap.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$45,535结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETTrader sentiment positions OpenAI as the clear frontrunner for second-best AI agent lab by end of October, reflected in its 81.5% implied probability. This stems from its leading large language model releases, demonstrated agentic capabilities in autonomous task handling, and broad developer ecosystem adoption that outpace competitors. Anthropic follows at 13.5%, supported by steady Claude model progress and safety-focused positioning, while Google, Meta, and emerging labs trail below 3% amid slower agent-specific advancements and integration timelines. Key upcoming catalysts include new model benchmarks and industry conferences that could shift consensus if they reveal meaningful capability gains or delays in OpenAI's roadmap.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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