Anthropic faces mounting competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, which has captured growing enterprise share, prompting internal discussions of an imminent Claude Opus update ahead of a potential IPO. Recent rumors of a mid-to-late September launch for a new Opus variant, including possible routing changes and efficiency gains, align with the model’s historical cadence of roughly monthly iterations since Opus 5 in July. Trader consensus, reflected in the 44.8% implied probability for September 21 and 18% for September 22, appears driven by credible leaks and the company’s pattern of rapid large language model releases, while the 24.5% chance of no release by September 30 accounts for safety reviews and CEO Dario Amodei’s recent call to slow capability advances. Key near-term catalysts include any official announcement or API documentation updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月21日 44.4%
截至9月30日未发布 25%
9月22日 18%
9月24日 12%
$22,427 交易量
$22,427 交易量
2026-09-19
9月19日
<1%
9月20日
1%
9月21日
44%
9月22日
18%
9月23日
1%
9月24日
12%
9月25日
2%
9月26日
<1%
9月27日
<1%
9月28日
<1%
9月29日
1%
9月30日
1%
截至9月30日未发布
25%
9月21日 44.4%
截至9月30日未发布 25%
9月22日 18%
9月24日 12%
$22,427 交易量
$22,427 交易量
2026-09-19
9月19日
$669 交易量
<1%
9月20日
$1,149 交易量
1%
9月21日
$6,954 交易量
44%
9月22日
$1,748 交易量
18%
9月23日
$1,057 交易量
1%
9月24日
$2,200 交易量
12%
9月25日
$784 交易量
2%
9月26日
$578 交易量
<1%
9月27日
$776 交易量
<1%
9月28日
$345 交易量
<1%
9月29日
$1,178 交易量
1%
9月30日
$1,256 交易量
1%
截至9月30日未发布
$2,422 交易量
25%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic faces mounting competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, which has captured growing enterprise share, prompting internal discussions of an imminent Claude Opus update ahead of a potential IPO. Recent rumors of a mid-to-late September launch for a new Opus variant, including possible routing changes and efficiency gains, align with the model’s historical cadence of roughly monthly iterations since Opus 5 in July. Trader consensus, reflected in the 44.8% implied probability for September 21 and 18% for September 22, appears driven by credible leaks and the company’s pattern of rapid large language model releases, while the 24.5% chance of no release by September 30 accounts for safety reviews and CEO Dario Amodei’s recent call to slow capability advances. Key near-term catalysts include any official announcement or API documentation updates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
交易量
$22,427结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic faces mounting competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, which has captured growing enterprise share, prompting internal discussions of an imminent Claude Opus update ahead of a potential IPO. Recent rumors of a mid-to-late September launch for a new Opus variant, including possible routing changes and efficiency gains, align with the model’s historical cadence of roughly monthly iterations since Opus 5 in July. Trader consensus, reflected in the 44.8% implied probability for September 21 and 18% for September 22, appears driven by credible leaks and the company’s pattern of rapid large language model releases, while the 24.5% chance of no release by September 30 accounts for safety reviews and CEO Dario Amodei’s recent call to slow capability advances. Key near-term catalysts include any official announcement or API documentation updates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$22,427结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETAnthropic faces mounting competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, which has captured growing enterprise share, prompting internal discussions of an imminent Claude Opus update ahead of a potential IPO. Recent rumors of a mid-to-late September launch for a new Opus variant, including possible routing changes and efficiency gains, align with the model’s historical cadence of roughly monthly iterations since Opus 5 in July. Trader consensus, reflected in the 44.8% implied probability for September 21 and 18% for September 22, appears driven by credible leaks and the company’s pattern of rapid large language model releases, while the 24.5% chance of no release by September 30 accounts for safety reviews and CEO Dario Amodei’s recent call to slow capability advances. Key near-term catalysts include any official announcement or API documentation updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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