Trader consensus heavily favors no Gemini Pro release by September 30 at 91.5% implied probability, driven by persistent delays on Gemini 3.5 Pro since its May 2026 I/O teaser and June target. Google has instead prioritized iterative Flash variants, including 3.8 Flash in early September and 3.8 Live models mid-month, while confirming Gemini 4 pretraining and noting the flagship still requires further partner testing and refinement for coding and agentic performance. This aligns with the company's pattern of measured frontier-model pacing amid competitive pressure. A last-minute surprise rollout before month-end remains possible but would require an abrupt shift from current internal benchmarks and changelog activity.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于在9月30日之前不发布 92%
9 月 30 日 3.4%
9 月 29 日 3.0%
9月28日 2.9%
$128,258 交易量
$128,258 交易量
2026-09-23
9月23日
2%
9月24日
3%
9月25日
1%
9月26日
<1%
9 月 27 日
1%
9月28日
3%
9 月 29 日
3%
9 月 30 日
3%
在9月30日之前不发布
92%
在9月30日之前不发布 92%
9 月 30 日 3.4%
9 月 29 日 3.0%
9月28日 2.9%
$128,258 交易量
$128,258 交易量
2026-09-23
9月23日
$486 交易量
2%
9月24日
$604 交易量
3%
9月25日
$308 交易量
1%
9月26日
$310 交易量
<1%
9 月 27 日
$312 交易量
1%
9月28日
$651 交易量
3%
9 月 29 日
$558 交易量
3%
9 月 30 日
$893 交易量
3%
在9月30日之前不发布
$112,227 交易量
92%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no Gemini Pro release by September 30 at 91.5% implied probability, driven by persistent delays on Gemini 3.5 Pro since its May 2026 I/O teaser and June target. Google has instead prioritized iterative Flash variants, including 3.8 Flash in early September and 3.8 Live models mid-month, while confirming Gemini 4 pretraining and noting the flagship still requires further partner testing and refinement for coding and agentic performance. This aligns with the company's pattern of measured frontier-model pacing amid competitive pressure. A last-minute surprise rollout before month-end remains possible but would require an abrupt shift from current internal benchmarks and changelog activity.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
交易量
$128,258结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no Gemini Pro release by September 30 at 91.5% implied probability, driven by persistent delays on Gemini 3.5 Pro since its May 2026 I/O teaser and June target. Google has instead prioritized iterative Flash variants, including 3.8 Flash in early September and 3.8 Live models mid-month, while confirming Gemini 4 pretraining and noting the flagship still requires further partner testing and refinement for coding and agentic performance. This aligns with the company's pattern of measured frontier-model pacing amid competitive pressure. A last-minute surprise rollout before month-end remains possible but would require an abrupt shift from current internal benchmarks and changelog activity.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$128,258结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETTrader consensus heavily favors no Gemini Pro release by September 30 at 91.5% implied probability, driven by persistent delays on Gemini 3.5 Pro since its May 2026 I/O teaser and June target. Google has instead prioritized iterative Flash variants, including 3.8 Flash in early September and 3.8 Live models mid-month, while confirming Gemini 4 pretraining and noting the flagship still requires further partner testing and refinement for coding and agentic performance. This aligns with the company's pattern of measured frontier-model pacing amid competitive pressure. A last-minute surprise rollout before month-end remains possible but would require an abrupt shift from current internal benchmarks and changelog activity.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题