Trader sentiment strongly favors Anthropic at 88.5% implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of October, reflecting its recent large language model releases that have set new standards in reasoning benchmarks and safety evaluations. This edge stems from demonstrated capability gains over the past month that have outpaced rivals in competitive testing. In contrast, OpenAI at 2.1%, Google at 8%, and Meta at 1.6% show limited expected near-term shifts, amid a crowded field where many other labs sit near even odds due to uncertain development timelines. Key upcoming catalysts include any surprise benchmark updates or model iterations before the resolution date, though current consensus points to Anthropic maintaining its lead in the AI capabilities race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 89%
Google 8.0%
OpenAI 2.2%
Meta 1.6%
$361,037 交易量
$361,037 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
89%
8%
OpenAI
2%
Meta
2%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 89%
Google 8.0%
OpenAI 2.2%
Meta 1.6%
$361,037 交易量
$361,037 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
$68,786 交易量
89%
$36,078 交易量
8%
OpenAI
$35,266 交易量
2%
Meta
$34,124 交易量
2%
SpaceXAI
$26,608 交易量
<1%
Alibaba
$21,731 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$27,729 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$26,734 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$29,344 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$20,924 交易量
<1%
Baidu
$11,129 交易量
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,471 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$2,066 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$7,360 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$925 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$1,262 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$1,800 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$4,885 交易量
<1%
Tencent
$949 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$540 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$1,327 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment strongly favors Anthropic at 88.5% implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of October, reflecting its recent large language model releases that have set new standards in reasoning benchmarks and safety evaluations. This edge stems from demonstrated capability gains over the past month that have outpaced rivals in competitive testing. In contrast, OpenAI at 2.1%, Google at 8%, and Meta at 1.6% show limited expected near-term shifts, amid a crowded field where many other labs sit near even odds due to uncertain development timelines. Key upcoming catalysts include any surprise benchmark updates or model iterations before the resolution date, though current consensus points to Anthropic maintaining its lead in the AI capabilities race.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
交易量
$361,037结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment strongly favors Anthropic at 88.5% implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of October, reflecting its recent large language model releases that have set new standards in reasoning benchmarks and safety evaluations. This edge stems from demonstrated capability gains over the past month that have outpaced rivals in competitive testing. In contrast, OpenAI at 2.1%, Google at 8%, and Meta at 1.6% show limited expected near-term shifts, amid a crowded field where many other labs sit near even odds due to uncertain development timelines. Key upcoming catalysts include any surprise benchmark updates or model iterations before the resolution date, though current consensus points to Anthropic maintaining its lead in the AI capabilities race.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$361,037结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETTrader sentiment strongly favors Anthropic at 88.5% implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of October, reflecting its recent large language model releases that have set new standards in reasoning benchmarks and safety evaluations. This edge stems from demonstrated capability gains over the past month that have outpaced rivals in competitive testing. In contrast, OpenAI at 2.1%, Google at 8%, and Meta at 1.6% show limited expected near-term shifts, amid a crowded field where many other labs sit near even odds due to uncertain development timelines. Key upcoming catalysts include any surprise benchmark updates or model iterations before the resolution date, though current consensus points to Anthropic maintaining its lead in the AI capabilities race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题