Traders assign Google an 86.5% implied probability as the second-best Text Arena Math AI lab by end of September, driven by its recent large language model releases that have demonstrated superior mathematical reasoning on public benchmarks and arena evaluations. This edge reflects consistent gains in chain-of-thought performance and competitive positioning against other labs. OpenAI sits at 7.1% as its latest reasoning models undergo further testing, while Anthropic, Meta, and smaller players like Moonshot or DeepSeek register far lower odds amid slower visible progress in math-specific capabilities. Any final September benchmark refreshes or capability demonstrations remain the main near-term factors that could adjust these probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Google 87%
OpenAI 7.1%
Anthropic 2.9%
Meta 2.5%
$61,119 交易量
$61,119 交易量
2026-09-30
87%
OpenAI
7%
Anthropic
3%
Meta
2%
Moonshot
2%
Alibaba
2%
Z.ai
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Baidu
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 87%
OpenAI 7.1%
Anthropic 2.9%
Meta 2.5%
$61,119 交易量
$61,119 交易量
2026-09-30
$20,386 交易量
87%
OpenAI
$6,978 交易量
7%
Anthropic
$7,789 交易量
3%
Meta
$1,620 交易量
2%
Moonshot
$1,803 交易量
2%
Alibaba
$5,827 交易量
2%
Z.ai
$1,741 交易量
1%
SpaceXAI
$1,332 交易量
1%
Baidu
$1,368 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$1,482 交易量
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,689 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,272 交易量
<1%
Tencent
$1,302 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$766 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$1,063 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$1,044 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$951 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$1,228 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$566 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$910 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Google an 86.5% implied probability as the second-best Text Arena Math AI lab by end of September, driven by its recent large language model releases that have demonstrated superior mathematical reasoning on public benchmarks and arena evaluations. This edge reflects consistent gains in chain-of-thought performance and competitive positioning against other labs. OpenAI sits at 7.1% as its latest reasoning models undergo further testing, while Anthropic, Meta, and smaller players like Moonshot or DeepSeek register far lower odds amid slower visible progress in math-specific capabilities. Any final September benchmark refreshes or capability demonstrations remain the main near-term factors that could adjust these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$61,119结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Google an 86.5% implied probability as the second-best Text Arena Math AI lab by end of September, driven by its recent large language model releases that have demonstrated superior mathematical reasoning on public benchmarks and arena evaluations. This edge reflects consistent gains in chain-of-thought performance and competitive positioning against other labs. OpenAI sits at 7.1% as its latest reasoning models undergo further testing, while Anthropic, Meta, and smaller players like Moonshot or DeepSeek register far lower odds amid slower visible progress in math-specific capabilities. Any final September benchmark refreshes or capability demonstrations remain the main near-term factors that could adjust these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$61,119结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETTraders assign Google an 86.5% implied probability as the second-best Text Arena Math AI lab by end of September, driven by its recent large language model releases that have demonstrated superior mathematical reasoning on public benchmarks and arena evaluations. This edge reflects consistent gains in chain-of-thought performance and competitive positioning against other labs. OpenAI sits at 7.1% as its latest reasoning models undergo further testing, while Anthropic, Meta, and smaller players like Moonshot or DeepSeek register far lower odds amid slower visible progress in math-specific capabilities. Any final September benchmark refreshes or capability demonstrations remain the main near-term factors that could adjust these probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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