OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release and strong showings on Code Arena WebDev leaderboards have driven trader consensus toward a 67% implied probability that the company fields the top model by month-end. Its models have posted leading or near-leading scores in agentic frontend and full-stack tasks, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1-Max on several reference-based and multi-step workflows while remaining competitively priced. Anthropic retains a 31% chance on the strength of its prior Fable and Opus releases, but recent benchmark gaps and OpenAI’s September momentum have widened the perceived lead. Smaller players such as Moonshot’s Kimi K3, Alibaba’s Qwen series, and Z.ai’s GLM variants trail significantly on the current Pareto frontier, with negligible odds reflecting limited recent gains in web-dev-specific capabilities. Resolution hinges on live arena votes through the final days of September, where any late model updates or scoring shifts could still alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于OpenAI 67.2%
Anthropic 31%
Moonshot <1%
谷歌 <1%
$158,369 交易量
$158,369 交易量
2026-09-30
OpenAI
67%
Anthropic
31%
Moonshot
<1%
谷歌
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
小米
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Thinky
<1%
腾讯
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Mistral
<1%
OpenAI 67.2%
Anthropic 31%
Moonshot <1%
谷歌 <1%
$158,369 交易量
$158,369 交易量
2026-09-30
OpenAI
$31,933 交易量
67%
Anthropic
$66,150 交易量
31%
Moonshot
$21,023 交易量
<1%
谷歌
$7,888 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$4,801 交易量
<1%
SpaceXAI
$6,591 交易量
<1%
Meta
$3,137 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$1,134 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$8,558 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$1,246 交易量
<1%
小米
$657 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,690 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$560 交易量
<1%
腾讯
$571 交易量
<1%
Poolside
$641 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$789 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release and strong showings on Code Arena WebDev leaderboards have driven trader consensus toward a 67% implied probability that the company fields the top model by month-end. Its models have posted leading or near-leading scores in agentic frontend and full-stack tasks, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1-Max on several reference-based and multi-step workflows while remaining competitively priced. Anthropic retains a 31% chance on the strength of its prior Fable and Opus releases, but recent benchmark gaps and OpenAI’s September momentum have widened the perceived lead. Smaller players such as Moonshot’s Kimi K3, Alibaba’s Qwen series, and Z.ai’s GLM variants trail significantly on the current Pareto frontier, with negligible odds reflecting limited recent gains in web-dev-specific capabilities. Resolution hinges on live arena votes through the final days of September, where any late model updates or scoring shifts could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ET
交易量
$158,369结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release and strong showings on Code Arena WebDev leaderboards have driven trader consensus toward a 67% implied probability that the company fields the top model by month-end. Its models have posted leading or near-leading scores in agentic frontend and full-stack tasks, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1-Max on several reference-based and multi-step workflows while remaining competitively priced. Anthropic retains a 31% chance on the strength of its prior Fable and Opus releases, but recent benchmark gaps and OpenAI’s September momentum have widened the perceived lead. Smaller players such as Moonshot’s Kimi K3, Alibaba’s Qwen series, and Z.ai’s GLM variants trail significantly on the current Pareto frontier, with negligible odds reflecting limited recent gains in web-dev-specific capabilities. Resolution hinges on live arena votes through the final days of September, where any late model updates or scoring shifts could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$158,369结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETOpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release and strong showings on Code Arena WebDev leaderboards have driven trader consensus toward a 67% implied probability that the company fields the top model by month-end. Its models have posted leading or near-leading scores in agentic frontend and full-stack tasks, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1-Max on several reference-based and multi-step workflows while remaining competitively priced. Anthropic retains a 31% chance on the strength of its prior Fable and Opus releases, but recent benchmark gaps and OpenAI’s September momentum have widened the perceived lead. Smaller players such as Moonshot’s Kimi K3, Alibaba’s Qwen series, and Z.ai’s GLM variants trail significantly on the current Pareto frontier, with negligible odds reflecting limited recent gains in web-dev-specific capabilities. Resolution hinges on live arena votes through the final days of September, where any late model updates or scoring shifts could still alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题