Bipartisan proposals for comprehensive AI safety legislation, including frontier model oversight, incident reporting, and independent audits, have advanced through House committees in 2026 but stalled short of enactment amid disagreements over federal preemption of state rules and the scope of regulatory authority. Lawmakers from both parties have cited limited remaining legislative days before year-end, competing priorities, and challenges building consensus on mandatory capability-based standards as key barriers. Recent executive actions have emphasized voluntary frameworks and innovation incentives rather than binding safety mandates, while targeted measures on chatbots and minors have seen more progress than broad risk-mitigation bills. Trader pricing reflects these procedural and political hurdles to passage before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
28% 概率
$102,325 交易量
$102,325 交易量
2026-12-31
是
28% 概率
$102,325 交易量
$102,325 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Bipartisan proposals for comprehensive AI safety legislation, including frontier model oversight, incident reporting, and independent audits, have advanced through House committees in 2026 but stalled short of enactment amid disagreements over federal preemption of state rules and the scope of regulatory authority. Lawmakers from both parties have cited limited remaining legislative days before year-end, competing priorities, and challenges building consensus on mandatory capability-based standards as key barriers. Recent executive actions have emphasized voluntary frameworks and innovation incentives rather than binding safety mandates, while targeted measures on chatbots and minors have seen more progress than broad risk-mitigation bills. Trader pricing reflects these procedural and political hurdles to passage before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
交易量
$102,325结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Bipartisan proposals for comprehensive AI safety legislation, including frontier model oversight, incident reporting, and independent audits, have advanced through House committees in 2026 but stalled short of enactment amid disagreements over federal preemption of state rules and the scope of regulatory authority. Lawmakers from both parties have cited limited remaining legislative days before year-end, competing priorities, and challenges building consensus on mandatory capability-based standards as key barriers. Recent executive actions have emphasized voluntary frameworks and innovation incentives rather than binding safety mandates, while targeted measures on chatbots and minors have seen more progress than broad risk-mitigation bills. Trader pricing reflects these procedural and political hurdles to passage before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$102,325结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETBipartisan proposals for comprehensive AI safety legislation, including frontier model oversight, incident reporting, and independent audits, have advanced through House committees in 2026 but stalled short of enactment amid disagreements over federal preemption of state rules and the scope of regulatory authority. Lawmakers from both parties have cited limited remaining legislative days before year-end, competing priorities, and challenges building consensus on mandatory capability-based standards as key barriers. Recent executive actions have emphasized voluntary frameworks and innovation incentives rather than binding safety mandates, while targeted measures on chatbots and minors have seen more progress than broad risk-mitigation bills. Trader pricing reflects these procedural and political hurdles to passage before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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