Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Larry Thompson to contest the November general election in California’s 32nd congressional district. The seat carries a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and Sherman’s 66 percent victory in the 2024 general election against the same opponent. Sherman’s long tenure, established fundraising edge, and the district’s voter composition have produced trader consensus favoring his reelection. Thompson, positioned as a centrist, faces structural barriers in a district rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. Late developments such as turnout shifts, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals remain the primary variables that could alter the current implied probability before ballots close on November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-32 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-32 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$26,127 Объем
$26,127 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Брэд Шерман (Д)
95%
Ларри Томпсон (Р)
1%
$26,127 Объем
$26,127 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Брэд Шерман (Д)
$12,387 Объем
95%
Ларри Томпсон (Р)
$13,740 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Larry Thompson to contest the November general election in California’s 32nd congressional district. The seat carries a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and Sherman’s 66 percent victory in the 2024 general election against the same opponent. Sherman’s long tenure, established fundraising edge, and the district’s voter composition have produced trader consensus favoring his reelection. Thompson, positioned as a centrist, faces structural barriers in a district rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. Late developments such as turnout shifts, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals remain the primary variables that could alter the current implied probability before ballots close on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Объем
$26,127Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Larry Thompson to contest the November general election in California’s 32nd congressional district. The seat carries a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and Sherman’s 66 percent victory in the 2024 general election against the same opponent. Sherman’s long tenure, established fundraising edge, and the district’s voter composition have produced trader consensus favoring his reelection. Thompson, positioned as a centrist, faces structural barriers in a district rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. Late developments such as turnout shifts, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals remain the primary variables that could alter the current implied probability before ballots close on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$26,127Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Larry Thompson to contest the November general election in California’s 32nd congressional district. The seat carries a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and Sherman’s 66 percent victory in the 2024 general election against the same opponent. Sherman’s long tenure, established fundraising edge, and the district’s voter composition have produced trader consensus favoring his reelection. Thompson, positioned as a centrist, faces structural barriers in a district rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. Late developments such as turnout shifts, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals remain the primary variables that could alter the current implied probability before ballots close on November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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