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icon for CA-31 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
Политика·Выборы 4 ноября

CA-31 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей

icon for CA-31 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
Политика·Выборы 4 ноября

CA-31 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей

Polymarket

$18,210 Объем

Polymarket

$18,210 Объем

Хиль Сиснерос (Д)

$8,029 Объем

96%

Эрик Чинг (Р)

$10,181 Объем

5%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Gil Cisneros, the Democratic incumbent in California's 31st congressional district, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 61% of the vote against Republican Eric Ching's 24%. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+10 and favored Democrats by double digits in recent presidential and statewide contests. Cisneros benefits from established name recognition after winning the open seat in 2024, along with a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $565,000 compared to Ching's under $70,000. Independent race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 95% for Cisneros reflects these structural and resource advantages, though an unforeseen late-cycle development such as a major scandal or health event could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$18,210
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Gil Cisneros, the Democratic incumbent in California's 31st congressional district, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 61% of the vote against Republican Eric Ching's 24%. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+10 and favored Democrats by double digits in recent presidential and statewide contests. Cisneros benefits from established name recognition after winning the open seat in 2024, along with a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $565,000 compared to Ching's under $70,000. Independent race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 95% for Cisneros reflects these structural and resource advantages, though an unforeseen late-cycle development such as a major scandal or health event could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$18,210
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x2F5e3684c...

Связанные

icon for Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу CA-11?

Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу CA-11?

98%
Да
icon for Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу CA-28?

Выиграет ли Демократическая партия место в Палате представителей по округу CA-28?

96%
Да
icon for Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу TX-31?

Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу TX-31?

93%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«CA-31 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Хиль Сиснерос (Д)» с 96%, за ним следует «Эрик Чинг (Р)» с 5%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 96¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 96%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «CA-31 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $18.2K с момента запуска рынка Jan 28, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «CA-31 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей», просмотри 2 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «CA-31 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» — «Хиль Сиснерос (Д)» с 96%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 96%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Эрик Чинг (Р)» с 5%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «CA-31 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.