**Ken Calvert holds a clear edge in the CA-40 general election matchup against fellow Republican incumbent Young Kim, reflecting trader consensus on his larger share of the redrawn district and stronger primary performance.** Following 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, both incumbents were placed in the same seat, with Calvert representing about 51% of the new boundaries compared to Kim’s 35%. Calvert won the June 2, 2026 top-two primary with roughly 35% to Kim’s 21%, advancing both Republicans while excluding Democratic candidates. The district’s Republican lean (roughly R+10 to R+11 based on recent presidential results) makes the November 3 outcome hinge on intraparty dynamics, including overlapping voter bases, negative advertising over Trump alignment and legislative records, and relative name recognition. A mid-July poll showed a statistical tie, though Calvert’s longer tenure and district overlap continue to support his lead in betting markets. No major late developments have shifted positioning in the weeks since.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-40 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей (физическое лицо)
CA-40 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей (физическое лицо)
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Кен Кэлверт
68%
Янг Ким
31%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Кен Кэлверт
$1,644 Объем
68%
Янг Ким
$1,463 Объем
31%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Ken Calvert holds a clear edge in the CA-40 general election matchup against fellow Republican incumbent Young Kim, reflecting trader consensus on his larger share of the redrawn district and stronger primary performance.**
Following 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, both incumbents were placed in the same seat, with Calvert representing about 51% of the new boundaries compared to Kim’s 35%. Calvert won the June 2, 2026 top-two primary with roughly 35% to Kim’s 21%, advancing both Republicans while excluding Democratic candidates. The district’s Republican lean (roughly R+10 to R+11 based on recent presidential results) makes the November 3 outcome hinge on intraparty dynamics, including overlapping voter bases, negative advertising over Trump alignment and legislative records, and relative name recognition. A mid-July poll showed a statistical tie, though Calvert’s longer tenure and district overlap continue to support his lead in betting markets. No major late developments have shifted positioning in the weeks since.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jul 9, 2026, 10:11 PM ET
Объем
$3,107Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 9, 2026, 10:11 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Ken Calvert holds a clear edge in the CA-40 general election matchup against fellow Republican incumbent Young Kim, reflecting trader consensus on his larger share of the redrawn district and stronger primary performance.**
Following 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, both incumbents were placed in the same seat, with Calvert representing about 51% of the new boundaries compared to Kim’s 35%. Calvert won the June 2, 2026 top-two primary with roughly 35% to Kim’s 21%, advancing both Republicans while excluding Democratic candidates. The district’s Republican lean (roughly R+10 to R+11 based on recent presidential results) makes the November 3 outcome hinge on intraparty dynamics, including overlapping voter bases, negative advertising over Trump alignment and legislative records, and relative name recognition. A mid-July poll showed a statistical tie, though Calvert’s longer tenure and district overlap continue to support his lead in betting markets. No major late developments have shifted positioning in the weeks since.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$3,107Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 9, 2026, 10:11 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Ken Calvert holds a clear edge in the CA-40 general election matchup against fellow Republican incumbent Young Kim, reflecting trader consensus on his larger share of the redrawn district and stronger primary performance.** Following 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, both incumbents were placed in the same seat, with Calvert representing about 51% of the new boundaries compared to Kim’s 35%. Calvert won the June 2, 2026 top-two primary with roughly 35% to Kim’s 21%, advancing both Republicans while excluding Democratic candidates. The district’s Republican lean (roughly R+10 to R+11 based on recent presidential results) makes the November 3 outcome hinge on intraparty dynamics, including overlapping voter bases, negative advertising over Trump alignment and legislative records, and relative name recognition. A mid-July poll showed a statistical tie, though Calvert’s longer tenure and district overlap continue to support his lead in betting markets. No major late developments have shifted positioning in the weeks since.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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